Good evening. Thank you for the opportunity to speak with the committee as part of your study of Atlantic mackerel and Atlantic herring.
As introduced, my name is Erin Carruthers, and I'm a fisheries scientist with the Fish, Food and Allied Workers Union. As many of you know, the FFAW represents close to 10,000 fish harvesters in addition to membership working in fish plants, manufacturing, hospitality and other sectors.
FFAW presented to this committee in November 2022 with respect to the mackerel closure. All of our observations and comments from our 2022 submission still stand. Harvesters continue to report an abundance of mackerel throughout Newfoundland and Labrador waters.
In 2023, FFAW presented results from a survey of 185 harvesters with an average of 31 years of fishing experience each, 85 of whom reported that mackerel are “more abundant” or “much more abundant” than five years ago. We repeated this study last year, and 111 harvesters responded, 90% of whom reported that mackerel are “more abundant” or “much more abundant”.
Those survey results give a sense of the overall scope and consistency of observations across NAFO divisions and over the years, but it's also important to document the rationale that harvesters provide for their assessment of mackerel abundance.
When discussing the abundance of mackerel, harvesters describe the spatial extent of mackerel schools. Harvesters describe the size and frequency of the aggregations. Harvesters relate those observations to what they've seen over their fishing careers. Harvesters' assessment of the health of the stock is not simply because you can see mackerel on the top of the water, as was suggested earlier in this study. This mackerel behaviour has not changed over time. Harvesters' assessment is based on extent, timing, duration and number of aggregations, and on comparisons with their observations over a lifetime of fishing.
Harvesters are frustrated. What do we do? We have more than a gap in understanding. We have more than a difference in assessment of the health of the stock. The recent DFO stock assessment states that the stock is in the critical zone, with a projected recovery time of 18 years. Harvesters throughout Newfoundland and Labrador are reporting that mackerel are abundant. To quote, “It's the most I've seen in 30-plus years,” or “It's the best I've seen since the 1980s.” How do we begin to reconcile these vastly different perceptions of stock status? We have a problem here.
In my job as a fisheries scientist and working within a fishing union, one of the most important questions I learned to ask is, why do you think that is? Asked another way it's, how do you know what you know? The same questions asked within a scientific or assessment meaning are, what are the assumptions and the data used to build your model and understanding, and how do you know what you know?
In the case of the mackerel stock assessment, the contentious issue seems to be estimating adult or spawning stock biomass from the egg survey. The question is not whether or not egg surveys are a scientifically defensible approach. Rather, the question is, is this approach working here for this species at this time? Are there external data and observations that challenge that assessment? In the case of the northern contingent of Northwest Atlantic mackerel, there are.
What do we do? Dr. Vigneault mentioned two collaborative data collection projects in his presentation to this committee. The first started after the fishery was closed, with collection done by harvester organizations, including the FFAW. As part of this project, FFAW worked with six harvesters to provide four or five samples per season. This project provides data on the sizes and ages of mackerel, but it's not comparable to commercial data. It's not comparable to the information you would get from a commercial fishery. There are differences in gear type. For one, there's no seining, and sampling is really limited in space and time.
The second project, which we're just starting, is designed for broad sampling of a migratory fast-moving and fast-growing fish. It involves opportunistic sampling from harvesters on the water throughout the fishing season and throughout Newfoundland and Labrador waters and honestly could be an example for other parts where mackerel are.
The first project was designed to fill gaps in sampling following the commercial fishing closure. The second, we hope, is designed to address some of the differences between DFO's stock assessment of Atlantic mackerel and harvesters' assessment of stock health. The project is designed to document the extent as well as the sizes and spawning stage of mackerel throughout Newfoundland and Labrador waters.
Just as a note, unfortunately, my colleague Richard Gillett, a long-time pelagic fish harvester, was unable to attend. He knows far more about herring and Newfoundland herring fisheries than I do or ever will. In his absence, I will make a few comments.
Many of the issues for Newfoundland herring are the same as with mackerel. There is a vast gulf between harvesters and DFO's assessment of stock health. As an example, the mobile gear TAC for Trinity Bay was almost all landed within two hours. There were only 12 or 13 boats at it. They do not fish throughout the bay, but were located near ports and the pumps required to offload the fish. Still, the Trinity Bay mobile gear allocation was almost entirely landed within two hours.
Data collection for Newfoundland herring on the northeast and south coasts provides detailed information on the age composition but, again, has issues with estimating the overall biomass or the scale of the stock.