Evidence of meeting #28 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 40th Parliament, 3rd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was information.
A recording is available from Parliament.
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Yes, we looked, sir, but we couldn't see any.
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We couldn't make any reason to adjust our assumptions. Effectively what we do—which is typically what the Department of Finance does—is we tend to assume status quo behaviour unless we can make a convincing case otherwise that the system will be fundamentally reformed in terms of preparing our costs. And we highlight these assumptions in great detail, sir, in our report.
And if I could, I would like to add as well—
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
Stephen Woodworth Conservative Kitchener Centre, ON
Well, I understand about the assumption regarding status quo behaviour, but—
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
—that in Correctional Services Canada's report on plans and priorities, it's significant—
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
Stephen Woodworth Conservative Kitchener Centre, ON
If I could just stop you for a minute, because I have such limited time—
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
Stephen Woodworth Conservative Kitchener Centre, ON
—I think you've more or less come to the point of saying that you've assumed status quo. So I'm wondering whether you obtained any evidence from any valid criminology source about the impact on the reduction in pre-trial custody costs that the Truth in Sentencing Act will have.
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
If you have this information we will redo our estimates.
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
Stephen Woodworth Conservative Kitchener Centre, ON
Well, you know, if I had that information I might come and ask to be employed by your office. What I'm trying to understand, sir, is if in fact this is your approach generally, that you don't consider the cost savings of bills. When you're asked to provide information on the financial impact of a bill, you only look at the cost increases, not the cost savings?
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
No, sir, if there is any evidence.... This is one of the reasons we set up peer review panels. It's one of the reasons why we ask for conversations, detailed discussions with Correctional Services Canada officials, so we can get at these points, which we have done on this, sir. We went to the community, went to the Correctional Service of Canada—
9:45 a.m.
Conservative
Stephen Woodworth Conservative Kitchener Centre, ON
I have one minute left. You have answered my question.
Here is another one. Did you look at the 2007 Correctional Services Review Panel report, which proposed a number of improvements to Correctional Services that will likely lead to greater efficiencies and cost reductions? Did you look at that in coming to your conclusions about projections of their budget baseline?
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Sir, if those improvements were built into the baseline at Correctional Services Canada, we would include them. But to our knowledge I'm not sure they were built into the baseline. I've seen no evidence in the RPP that they were built into their baseline.
9:45 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We have the report. We've read the report.
9:45 a.m.
Liberal
Siobhan Coady Liberal St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL
Thank you very much.
And to my honourable colleague, I think the PBO would have included a lot of information if the political direction had been given to give him the necessary information and he had been able to have the meeting to actually hash out those points.
The massive costs of building these new prisons and putting people in jail is difficult when crime is going down. Perhaps it goes to Mr. Stockwell Day's point of unreported crime.
But my point I'd like to get to right now is the infrastructure stimulus fund and I'll talk a little bit about that, if I may. You note in your earlier comments, the comments you brought to the table, that there is a risk. You've “identified a noticeable delay in project start and end dates against the original projections”. You said there are potential risks of projects not being completed at the deadline, and as you know, that has been a topic of concern. And I know that my other honourable colleague did ask you a little bit about that at the beginning of this meeting. Perhaps you could elaborate.
The worst-case scenario you defined is a tremendous number: 1,814 projects may not be completed. Being fair, that was the worst-case scenario, with the potential lapse from the federal government of $500 million. I know you're doing analysis now, based on the third report card, but because you have a great understanding of this, where do you think we are today? And I know you don't have all the data at this point to give me a final summation, but where are we? With the best-case scenario or the worst-case scenario, where do you think we are at today's date?
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Thank you for the question.
Based on the information that we had—again, those estimates were based on data as of March 31—we felt comfortable that we needed three scenarios and we didn't feel comfortable applying weights to the probabilities of various scenarios based on that information. We think the June 30 data and then perhaps even the quarter after that, which we'll probably be at closer to the end, will give us a really good sense of where we're going to be on March 31 of 2010, so we're really not at a point to assign probabilities in terms of best case, mid-case, worst case.
9:50 a.m.
Liberal
Siobhan Coady Liberal St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL
Have you received the June 30 data or the September 30 data at this point, and when do you hope to receive it?
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We actually hope to get the June 30 data this week. We understand that the data is ready for us. It's simply a question of it making its way over to our office.
9:50 a.m.
Liberal
Siobhan Coady Liberal St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL
If you had the June 30 data as early as this week, when do you think you'll be able to give us an analysis of the best versus worst-case scenario? What I'm concerned about, quite frankly, is that we're getting closer and closer to that end-of-March deadline, and if we have the worst-case scenario or even near-worst-case scenario of 1,800 projects not being completed, I think that's a cause for concern and a cause for us to ask government, obviously, to extend those projects.
9:50 a.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We would need about 10 working days to turn an updated report around with an updated lapse analysis for you with different scenarios for the June 30 data.
9:50 a.m.
Liberal
Siobhan Coady Liberal St. John's South—Mount Pearl, NL
I see that you're getting some advice from your analysts.
