Thank you for the question.
We worked very rigorously in a number of respects. First, basic figures come from Canada Post and its data. We also have figures that have been checked by an extremely responsible and recognized firm, KPMG. Ernst & Young, with whom we worked, analyzed those figures. It did not redo the audit, but it worked with the figures.
Forecasts are just that, but as we said in our report, we did decide to go with the most conservative hypotheses. It can be said that 2011 was an exceptional year because of costs related to pay equity, but 2014 was also exceptional. In fact, the price of the stamp went from 62¢ to $1. That generated an influx of about $200 million, and it inevitably helped Canada Post somewhat catch its breath.
Moreover, I want to remind you of the issue of the pension plan's solvency. Some may say that it's only a matter of $6 billion or $8 billion, depending on the assessment. According to the latest assessment, the amount was $8 billion. In addition, solvency payments have been suspended for the time being. When a $6-billion company makes a profit of $100 million, it's not huge. In the private sector, that kind of a profit would not be considered extraordinary, quite the contrary. Moreover, that profit will quickly be lost once solvency payments resume.
There is also the obligation to continue to invest in the company. It needs modernization and must move toward new niches and new technologies. That is what our forecasts are based on. It's rather conservative—and we won't argue over $50 million or $100 million—but when we establish the medium to long-term trend, we see that the situation is very delicate. We have to remember what is at the basis of all this. In other words, we are no longer receiving or sending the letters to which we are so attached. In addition, we are receiving and paying our bills online. Sixty-nine percent of Canadians feel that this trend will continue to grow.
Moreover, we will be less and less favourable to marketing initiatives and advertising distributed through the mail, as we are increasingly aware that, in many ways, that is a waste of paper and we could just as well use the Internet.
Finally, when it comes to package delivery, which is experiencing considerable growth, the prices cannot be raised at will, as there are constraints, not in terms of legislation, but in terms of market forces. That is why the only worthwhile possibility to consider would probably be for a regulatory organization to set a floor price that would be applied to our competitors. That would give Canada Post some breathing room.