Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you for the invitation to appear before you today. It's our first virtual appearance before this committee. We are pleased to be here today to discuss our recent COVID-19 economic and fiscal analysis. With me today I have Mark Mahabir, director of policy, costing.
Our pandemic-related work to date has included the publication of three scenario analysis reports on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks. Our scenario analysis reports are designed to help parliamentarians gauge the potential implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks on the Canadian economy and the government’s finances. This analysis provides a plausible illustrative scenario, and it's not a forecast. The scenario analysis is updated regularly as more data and information become available.
Our latest scenario analysis update report, which was published at the end of April, incorporates new federal measures announced up to and including April 24. Our updated economic scenario assumes real GDP in Canada will decline by 12% in 2020, which would be the worst on record since the series started in 1961. Under this scenario, the budget deficit would increase to $252 billion in 2020-21. Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, the deficit would be 12.7% of GDP, and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio would rise to 48.4% of GDP in the current fiscal year.
The latest fiscal results include $146 billion in federal budgetary measures that have been announced as of April 24 based on Finance Canada's and PBO's cost estimates. These numbers do not take into consideration measures announced after April 24. Their inclusion would increase the federal deficit by over $7 billion.
My office has also produced cost estimates of several measures of the Government of Canada, notably the Canada emergency benefit as well as the wage benefit. According to our analysis, the cost related to CERB would amount to $35 billion while the emergency wage benefit would cost $75 billion.
Up to now, measures announced by the government are temporary in nature. As soon as these measures expire and the economy starts to grow again, the federal debt-to-GDP ratio should start to grow at a much lower level and even stabilize; however, should the measures be permanent or some of them be extended, the debt-to-GDP ratio could keep on rising.
Mark and I will be happy to answer your questions on COVID-19-related measures or any work of my office.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.