Government Operations Committee on Jan. 27th, 2021

[Francis Drouin, Liberal, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON]

I am really interested in knowing which economic indicators are used when the situation is unpredictable. In September, we suspected that there would be a second wave at some stage. Essentially, the provinces establish the lockdown measures or decide whether or not their economy will remain open. It varies from one province to another. I am curious to know how the forecasts are done in that situation.

We also have the issue of economic forecasts for private sectors. Statistics Canada provide some figures. For example, economists look at specific numbers of jobs created or jobs lost, but sometimes the reality does not match the forecasts.

I'm trying to understand a little. I imagine that, when the situation is unpredictable, it is difficult for you to do your work.

[Yves Giroux]

You are right, it is not easy. We use general equilibrium models as our basis. Under restrictions like a lockdown, economic activity decreases in certain sectors, such as hotels, restaurants and travel. We then see the repercussions that has in our general equilibrium model. When the opposite happens, meaning when the restrictions in those sectors are lifted, we use the model that has been used and refined on many occasions over the years to see the effect it has on all the other sectors of the economy. That is how we manage to make the forecasts.

Of course, that also requires a healthy dose of professional judgment. We do not rely solely on a model. We make adjustments to account for particular situations, such as whether they apply regionally or nationally.

[Francis Drouin, Liberal, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON]

Okay.

Since—

[The Chair, Conservative, Robert Gordon Kitchen]

Thank you, Mr. Giroux, and thank you, Mr. Drouin.

[Francis Drouin, Liberal, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell, ON]

Thank you very much.

[The Chair, Conservative, Robert Gordon Kitchen]

We'll now go for two and a half minutes to Ms. Vignola.

[Julie Vignola, Bloc, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

Mr. Drouin, as you know, yesterday, we held an emergency debate on vaccines. We asked a bunch of questions on the number of vaccines and we received some answers. We will have 6 million doses by the end of March, 26 million by the end of June and 80 million by December 31.

I have done a lot of calculating and I would like to ask you the following questions.

Is it reasonable to think that we will manage to get between 1.6 and 1.9 million vaccines per week? How much is this rapid purchase of foreign vaccines and the rapid vaccination program going to cost?

[Yves Giroux]

Mr. Chair, I'm not sure if the question was directed to me or at Mr. Drouin.

[Julie Vignola, Bloc, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

The question is for you, Mr. Giroux.

[Yves Giroux]

Okay.

Unfortunately, I do not have those figures. That is why I was trying to avoid the question. I have no answer about the cost of the vaccines and the vaccinations. It is something that we have not yet considered.

[Julie Vignola, Bloc, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

That's fine. It actually leads me to my next questions.

How is the government going to be able to improve its accountability for the implementation of COVID-19 measures? Which tools will it need to make the accountability more transparent and for the data to be more understandable, not only by you and by us as parliamentarians, but also by Canadians in general?

[Yves Giroux]

That is quite a broad and interesting question.

As I see it, a good way to improve accountability would probably be to go back to a model that existed before prorogation. The government put its expenditures on the various COVID-19 measures at the disposal of the Standing Committee on Finance and the public, almost in real time. The government published some anticipated expenditures, especially those for the CERB. It was not in real time but it was close. To my knowledge, in terms of real-time expenditures, we do not have the same transparency as before prorogation.

That would probably be a very good starting point. Actually, even more than a starting point, it would be excellent progress, in my opinion.

Given that the time is limited, I will stop there.

[Julie Vignola, Bloc, Beauport—Limoilou, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Giroux.

[The Chair, Conservative, Robert Gordon Kitchen]

Thank you.

As an aside, Ms. Vignola, I was following you along last night on the whiteboard, because I've done those same numbers.

We'll go now to Mr. Green for two and a half minutes.

[Matthew Green, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Just to pick up where we left on that, one of the questions I have around those numbers is that we're hearing announcements on doses, but we know that some of these will require two doses.

My question, through you to the PBO, is whether your review of this program also includes the necessary amount of doses per person to be inoculated.

[Yves Giroux]

No, and that's because the vaccine issue is a relatively recent issue in the grand scheme of the pandemic. We haven't started looking at the vaccines.

[Matthew Green, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

That's fair. It's something I'm certainly close to, because these numbers tend to shift when you look at the different ways in which they're administered.

I want to get really clear about the program supports we have provided for small businesses. We've heard reports from across the country of businesses that are shuttering and the likelihood of many of these small businesses being lost, perhaps forever. We did make an effort to provide small businesses, particularly, with the Canada emergency rent subsidy.

Do you make an assessment between what the government announces as the total announcement of the program versus the actual uptake? Also, could you comment on the prior uptake, when the program went to the landlords, versus when it went right through to the small businesses?

[Yves Giroux]

When the government announces a program and provides a cost estimate, we also do our own cost estimate. There is sometimes very close alignment, and sometimes a very significant gap between these two. It's because of different assumptions.

Given that the government has revised some of its cost estimates, and very often to align them more closely to ours, that gives us some comfort in the fact that our cost estimates were not—

[Matthew Green, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Respectfully, though, I'm not looking for comfort; I need to get a sense of the number.

I say that with the utmost respect to you.

[Yves Giroux]

Xiaoyi can probably expand a bit on the number and the update quickly.

[Xiaoyi Yan, Director, Budgetary Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer]

I do have some numbers here—as far as we know.

The previous rent subsidy program, CECRA, as of now, has provided about $2 billion in loans to about 65,000 landlords. This represents about 2.7 million in rents receiving a 75% subsidy. It represents about $1 in $10 of Canada's $54 billion in annual rents being subsidized during that period.

The recent CERS and the lockdown support provided $704 million in subsidies to about 94,000 unique businesses across Canada. Because of the variable subsidy rate, the rents subsidized are very difficult to be known.

[Matthew Green, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

That's fair. That's very helpful. Thank you.

[The Chair, Conservative, Robert Gordon Kitchen]

Thank you.

I think everyone wanted to see those numbers, and that's why I gave you the extra time.

We'll now go to Mr. McCauley for five minutes.

[Kelly McCauley, Conservative, Edmonton West, AB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Mr. Giroux, is there any reason you can see that we cannot set a fiscal anchor or present a budget right now, considering that almost every single OECD country has done so?

[Yves Giroux]

Personally, I see no fundamental reason why not. The government has been able to move very quickly on implementing programs that were designed from scratch. Doing a budget is something that the very capable Department of Finance is very able to do. There's no fundamental reason that I see for not having a budget.