Evidence of meeting #130 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was subcommittee.
A video is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB
They'll have less.
I just have one last quick question. I want to confirm one more time that, even given this report and given all the information we have today, including whatever error—which I think was corrected by you, and rightfully, Mr. Giroux—at the end of the day, the majority of households will be worse off when you factor in the economic and fiscal impacts of the carbon tax scam.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We know it's true if you factor in the fuel charge and the output-based pricing system. We are in the process of updating our analysis to isolate the impact of the fuel charge.
Conservative
Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB
That conclusion will not change, though, in your opinion.
Conservative
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you, Mr. Giroux.
You have the price on pollution, which is what Canadians and businesses pay, and then you have the Canada carbon rebate, which is what Canadians get back in their bank accounts on a regular basis. They get it four times a year. My Conservative colleague Mr. Lawrence once asked you whether there was more money coming into Canadians' pockets or leaving their pockets. You responded that most families are better off. You estimated that around 80% are better off.
Do you still believe that?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I still believe that. The government has also been quoting that number. I assume it's based on its independent estimate, when taking into account the amount of fuel charge paid, directly and indirectly, minus the rebate provided to them.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
How many households are better off, in your estimation?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I don't know the number by heart.
Liberal
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I would say about four.
Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Again, it's across provinces and different income quintiles.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Can you just tell me how many households out of five are better off?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's hard to have a definitive number because it varies across jurisdictions, but roughly speaking, we've been saying eight out of 10 or four out of five. It's in that ballpark.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Eight out of 10 families are better off with the carbon rebate. Four out of five households are better off. Is that correct?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's our understanding, as well as that of the government.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Okay, so based on that analysis, if Mr. Pierre Poilievre eliminates the Canada carbon rebate, how many households will be worse off in, let's say, my community of Windsor-Essex?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It depends on precisely what policy action is being taken.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Let's say the carbon rebate is eliminated, which is what the Conservatives and Mr. Poilievre want to do. How many families in my community, based on your analysis, will be worse off?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I don't know the exact profile of people in your community. We've done—
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
The median household income is $70,000 to $75,000 in my community. Based on that information, how many will be worse off if the carbon rebate is eliminated?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That would depend on the exact profile of the people in your community.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
For an average, you could do some reverse engineering on the numbers we have been citing.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It could be around eight out of 10, but it always depends on the profile specific to your community.
