Evidence of meeting #157 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was billion.
A video is available from Parliament.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
—making sure that we have a safe, responsible workplace is vital—
Conservative
Garnett Genuis Conservative Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB
I heard you were drunk in the House. That's what I heard. I don't know if it's true, but that's what I heard.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Colleagues, I have the floor. Please don't make me use what's left of my voice.
That is our time for today.
Unfortunately, you have used up your five minutes, Mr. Kusmierczyk.
Before we dismiss you, we have about 20 seconds, so I'll ask this really quickly: When do we have the departmental results coming out? Do you have an exact date?
President of the Treasury Board
That was a question that my colleague was asked—
Conservative
President of the Treasury Board
I answered it by saying that once we've tabled the public accounts, we will be tabling the DRRs, possibly on the same day. We're working on that right now.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
I have just a last question. On the public accounts, last Wednesday at the Senate finance committee, your officials were asked very specifically if the final reports had gone to the Auditor General. They delivered a very misleading response.
Could you respond why they would mislead the Senate finance committee and Canadians on that issue?
Secretary of the Treasury Board of Canada, Treasury Board Secretariat
Mr. Chair, I feel like I need to answer that the official in question is with us at the table and that later in that meeting, he clarified during testimony that he was not sure if it was the final version.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
He revised his answer after being confronted by the chair. I'm just trying to figure out why misleading information was given to Senate finance committee and therefore to Canadians.
Secretary of the Treasury Board of Canada, Treasury Board Secretariat
If I may, Mr. Chair, he provided subsequent clarification at the table and also with follow-up to the committee.
The actual version of the financial statements comes from the receiver general, not his shop, so I think we've clarified that we have the final version with the Auditor General now and are collaborating to finalize those public accounts.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Thank you very much.
With that, we are suspending for a few minutes and bringing in our new witnesses.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Minister Anand, Mr. Matthews, Ms. Cahill and Mr. Brunelle-Côté, thank you very much.
You are dismissed.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Good afternoon. We are back.
Before we start, colleagues, at the end of today, we have to pass a budget for one of our meetings. It has been distributed. Then we'll have to do a very quick vote on the estimates. I'm hoping that we can agree to lump them all together as one block and pass them today.
I would like to welcome back Mr. Giroux, a great friend and an honorary member of OGGO, and his colleagues, Mr. Creighton and Ms. Giswold.
Welcome back.
Do you have an opening statement, sir? Please go ahead.
Yves Giroux Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I certainly do have an opening statement. I was told I was allowed 30 minutes, but I'll make it shorter than that.
Conservative
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
All right.
Good morning, Mr. Chair and members of the committee.
I sincerely thank you for inviting us to appear before you today.
We are pleased to be with you to discuss our report on supplementary estimates (B) 2024‑25, published on November 20, 2024.
With me today I have our lead analysts on the report, Mark Creighton and Jill Giswold.
The supplementary estimates (B) 2024‑25 outline an additional $24.8 billion in budgetary authorities. Voted authorities, which require approval by Parliament, total $21.6 billion.
Statutory authorities, which the government already has Parliament’s permission to spend, are forecast to increase by a total of $3.2 billion.
The forecasted increase in statutory authorities is largely driven by the Canada Carbon Rebate, including $2.6 billion for small businesses and $307 million for individuals.
Roughly one quarter of proposed budgetary authorities, or $6.4 billion, is related to 143 Budget 2024 measures. To support parliamentarians in their scrutiny of Budget 2024 implementation, we have updated our tracking tables, which list all budget initiatives with planned spending in fiscal year 2024‑25, the planned spending amounts and the corresponding legislative funding authority.
Nearly one quarter of proposed spending, or $5.9 billion, falls under the indigenous portfolio, primarily for indigenous-related programs and claims. A notable amount of planned spending in these supplementary estimates relates to military procurement and support, including support for Ukraine. Planned spending on personnel accounts for approximately $2.9 billion of proposed authorities, with more than half, or $1.6 billion, going to the Treasury Board of Canada for negotiated salary adjustments and the public service insurance plans and programs.
Supplementary estimates (B) often follow the tabling of the public accounts; however, the public accounts for the previous fiscal year, 2023-2024, have yet to be released. The delayed publication of the public accounts prevents parliamentarians from having more time to conduct ex post financial scrutiny and obtain better information to assess the government's budget plans and estimates, including these supplementary estimates.
Parliamentarians have approximately three weeks from tabling, or one week from today, to approve the government's financial request. Should the supplementary estimates (B) not receive parliamentary approval by that time, departments may be required to cash manage their operations.
Mark, Jill and I would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our estimates analysis or other PBO work.
Thank you.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Thank you, Mr. Giroux.
We'll start with Mr. Morantz.
Welcome back to OGGO, Mr. Morantz. You have six minutes.
Conservative
Marty Morantz Conservative Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB
Thank you, Mr. Chair. It's a pleasure to be here.
Mr. Giroux, I have a few questions for you, but I just want to start with the latest Statistics Canada reporting that, for the last six quarters in a row, GDP per capita has declined in Canada. Would you agree that Canada is in a GDP-per-person recession?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's true that, when you have GDP-per-capita decreasing, it means that households are not getting richer. In fact, their standard of living is going lower; however, GDP-per-capita recession is not a term that is widely used, so we tend to define a recession by GDP itself, namely, real GDP declining.
Conservative
Marty Morantz Conservative Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB
It would be fair to say, though, that GDP per capita is receding as opposed to growing—
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes.
Conservative
Marty Morantz Conservative Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB
—even though we can't officially call it a recession.
In your report, you estimated that the deficit will actually be just under $47 billion, roughly $7 billion higher than the Minister of Finance declared in the budget. We also have, at least, an additional $6 billion in new expenditures from the GST holiday and the $250 cheques. The Minister of Finance promised a fiscal anchor that supposed a declining debt-to-GDP ratio. Will she be able to keep that promise?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Well, it's difficult to say for certain. However, the GST holiday that was recently announced is in this fiscal year. The $250 cheques, if they were approved by Parliament, would probably be in the next fiscal year, so there is a possibility that it will not significantly affect the capacity of the government to meet its fiscal anchor. However, based on our assessment, it is quite possible that the declining debt-to-GDP ratio anchor will be at a high risk this year and, next.... It's also quite a possibility if the increase in the capital gains inclusion rate does not materialize. Then the fiscal anchor of a declining debt-to-GDP ratio would be more than jeopardized: It would be, probably, busted this fiscal year.