This is because gross domestic product, or GDP, growth will be somewhat slower than we have seen in previous years. Growth in the Canada health transfer, or CHT, is tied to nominal GDP growth. When there is significant growth in nominal terms—that is, economic growth and inflation—the growth is solid.
We see for some of the earlier years that there were one-time non-recurring amounts during the COVID-19 pandemic, so there is a spike in figure 2-2, followed by a fairly steep decline. Going forward, the CHT will grow at a guaranteed minimum rate of 5%, rather than 3%, but economic growth and inflation are not expected to exceed this floor. For this reason, we expect most years to see a 5% growth in the CHT, except for one year when it is expected to approach 6% owing to economic growth.