Evidence of meeting #79 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was services.
A recording is available from Parliament.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I'm really fascinated by the selective memory of my colleague here across the way. Can you remind the folks around the table of what happened, Mr. Giroux, globally, let's say, starting in March of 2020, that affected every country around the world? Was there an event that had an impact on spending?
4:50 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I came back from March break.
No, seriously, there was COVID.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Obviously COVID required a strong, robust response to protect Canadians and businesses. How much of that spending was due to protecting Canadians during COVID?
4:50 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Over time, we've estimated that over $300 billion was spent by the federal government to provide income support to individuals and corporations and to procure vaccines.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Mr. Giroux, if the Conservatives had had their way, if there had been no wage subsidy program, would fewer or more businesses have closed without the wage subsidy program?
4:50 p.m.
Conservative
Garnett Genuis Conservative Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan, AB
On a point of order, Chair, would it be appropriate to point out at this time that Mr. Kusmierczyk is completely inaccurate in his statement regarding our position on a wage subsidy?
4:50 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
That's not a point of order.
Mr. Kusmierczyk, you're at 1:12.
Could we please get through these final few minutes, colleagues?
Mr. Johns is admirably quiet today.
4:50 p.m.
Some hon. members
Oh, oh!
4:50 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Mr. Kusmierczyk, you're at a minute and 12 seconds, so you have two minutes and 28 seconds.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Mr. Giroux, if the Conservatives had had their way and cut supports for businesses during COVID, would there be more or fewer businesses operating today?
4:50 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Assuming that there would have been no support for businesses, I think it's fair to say that there would have been quite a few more businesses going out of business in 2020 and 2021.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Thank you, Mr. Giroux.
Had the Liberal government not responded robustly with PPE and the vaccine program, had we not taken it upon ourselves to fund that program and had the Conservatives had their way, without more vaccines and more PPE, would more or fewer Canadians have died?
4:50 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I'm not a public health expert, but based on what we've heard over the last three and a half years, without PPE and vaccines, I think it's again safe to assume that there would have been more deaths in the Canadian population.
4:50 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Again, one of the big programs we provided was the CERB program, which helped a lot of Canadians through the worst times and provided them with funding on a month-to-month basis.
Without the CERB funding, would more or fewer Canadians be homeless right now?
4:50 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I can't determine whether more Canadians would be homeless, but without CERB, there would have been a lot of people going without income for periods of time when the country was under lockdown and businesses were ordered to close. Not everybody was eligible for EI, and some would have been eligible for EI at a lower replacement rate than what the CERB provided, so yes, there would certainly have been a significantly higher level of financial distress in 2020.
4:55 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Is it fair to say that the Canadian federal government spending was in line with how other federal governments around the world spent money as well, in terms of a percentage of their GDP? It was in line with what other countries spent on the COVID response. Is that correct?
4:55 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It varies—
4:55 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Generally speaking, some countries were spending more and some were spending less, so Canada, from what I recall, was not an outlier.
4:55 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Is it fair to say that with this government's spending we saved Canadians' lives, we protected jobs, and we protected people's financial positioning?
4:55 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I think it is fair to say that government interventions contributed to all three objectives you mentioned.
4:55 p.m.
Liberal
Irek Kusmierczyk Liberal Windsor—Tecumseh, ON
Thank you very much, Mr. Giroux. I'll yield my time to my colleague.
Thank you.
4:55 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
You have no time.
Ms. Vignola, we'll go to you for a minute and 30 seconds, please.
4:55 p.m.
Bloc
Julie Vignola Bloc Beauport—Limoilou, QC
Thank you.
My question is intended to give our viewers a better understanding of the subject.
Could you tell us what has the biggest impact on a government's financial results? Is it rising GDP? Is it alternating episodes of full employment and recession? Is it the colour of a government in general? Is it programs or cuts?
4:55 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's difficult to determine which of those factors has the biggest impact, but, in general, GDP growth and productivity growth are the two elements that have the greatest impact on a government's fiscal health—or lack thereof.
Nominal GDP is the tax base. That's what defines it best. Therefore, a rising nominal GDP is generally the best indicator of a government's ability to fund services.