That could explain part of it. One example is transfers for $10‑a‑day child care, which was included in the previous budget and therefore contributed in part to higher spending.
There are also other upcoming expenses, such as a national pharmacare program. We can look at all of the federal government's recent initiatives and see which ones might be considered provincial in terms of jurisdiction.
There have certainly been transfers for sectors usually considered to be provincial. Infrastructure is another example of a sector in which the government increased transfers to the provinces and, in some cases, municipalities.