Evidence of meeting #38 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was communications.
A video is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Jeremy Patzer Conservative Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley, SK
Are you willing to share who that retired deputy minister was?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I think if you were to put in a written question to PCO, they'd know what the right privacy level is, but if they don't answer, I can check with legal counsel.
Can I tell them, Mark?
Let me check, but I think that's a PCO question more than an Annette Ryan question. I'm happy to check and get back to you.
Conservative
Jeremy Patzer Conservative Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley, SK
All right.
Have you reviewed the OECD report on Canada's PBO? Do you accept its recommendations, including those about strengthening the selection process?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I have read the report, and I agree with the direction of its recommendations. I agree with the merits of strengthening the selection process. I will stop short of saying that I give recommendations to the government or parliamentarians about how that selection process should be handled. I'm happy to be part of the thing, but I don't think it's my role to recommend how it should be done.
More independence is good. I'd support that, but I think there's a certain nuance there to respect.
Conservative
Jeremy Patzer Conservative Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley, SK
Thank you very much.
I always like to qualify some questions for folks back home.
The national debt right now is $1.298 trillion. On the current trajectory, in two weeks or less it will be $1.3 trillion. The forecast in the economic update shows that the cost to service the debt alone is on a trajectory to approach $80 billion within the next five years. When you contrast that with what we collect in GST, I don't think that's even going to get up to $60 billion in that same time frame.
How concerning to Canadians should that level of debt and the interest payment on the debt be?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Going back to your colleague's earlier question, there's a big role for the parliamentary budget office to play to help Canadians understand in context what the choices and trade-offs are of spending now and paying later.
In my opening remarks, I agreed with you and flagged that, right now, the debt you mentioned in the large number of billions works out to $33,592 for each Canadian, including children. Over five years, according to current plans, that's going to grow to $38,295 for every Canadian. Similarly, those debt charges, in terms of interest alone, are going to increase from $1,400 to $1,900.
I'm concerned by that, and there are reasons to think that it could be sustainable over time, but I'd like to work with this committee to make sure these figures are put forward in a way that's digestible like that. Let's look at tax revenues per capita. Let's look at these trade-offs. Instead of just doing complex analyses, let's do some simple ones, as well.
Conservative
Liberal
Vince Gasparro Liberal Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
Thank you, Chair.
Congratulations, Ms. Ryan.
It's great to see you again, Mr. Jacques.
Thank you all for your service.
The government has laid out an ambitious agenda to transform the economy and make it more shock-resistant. This will require large amounts of investment over the coming term.
How does Canada's fiscal position compare to that of our G7 peers?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
There's a chart in the spring economic update that shows how Canada compares to its G7 peers. I think that's a stand-alone.
In terms of the opening piece about the ambitious agenda for investment, everybody shares the hope that ambition will play out into reality. I look forward to working to see the details of that investment and how it plays out through time: Are critical milestones being offered and met, and what metrics show us that those results are really coming into play? Let's watch for that vibrancy and prosperity together.
Liberal
Vince Gasparro Liberal Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
You referenced the spring economic update and Canada's strong fiscal position.
From your perspective, does using this fiscal space, which many of our G7 peers don't have, while being able to access relatively cheap capital and then investing that capital in long-term revenue-generating assets, show that the government is pursuing a sound fiscal policy?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I agree that makes a lot of sense in terms of a concept. The execution of that concept and the transparency to parliamentarians will be critical success factors. Past governments have typically spoken about the revenue-generating potential of expenditures they make, and they haven't always played out into the growth and upside risks those governments hoped for.
I very much think that plan beats no plan, but the more that can be made tangible and realistic and be shared with parliamentarians, the more we can roll up our sleeves and do some good work.
Liberal
Vince Gasparro Liberal Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
I'm glad you said that a plan beats no plan. To highlight that, Nigel Chalk, director of the International Monetary Fund's western hemisphere department, recently lauded Canada's fiscal position as the strongest in the G7. He stated, “In the current circumstances, if you have fiscal space, it's the time to use it.”
I'm going to say it again. During these times of an economic slowdown, is it sound policy to increase spending and investment in order to counter the slowdown and potential economic downturn we could face?
This is the Keynesian in me coming out.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I think that theory holds together, but looking at the execution and the implementation, how does the vision meet the plumbing? That space really could use a lot more oversight and transparency from government. There's a lot of vision, a lot of plans and a lot of actions, but it would be nice to sort of see them all come together in terms of how they flow through to results. Let's take that journey together. I think that's what I'll be here for a lot.
Liberal
Vince Gasparro Liberal Eglinton—Lawrence, ON
What I will say—and I've had this exchange with Mr. Jacques before as well—is that when you are financing and investing in infrastructure and these long-term revenue-generating assets, they take some time to build. I have some experience in this from the private sector, in financing these assets. That connection point, that execution that you're referring to.... The execution is happening, and we're starting to see green shoots on the ground, but it's going to take some time to build out these infrastructure assets.
Thank you very much.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Thank you.
Ms. Ryan, thanks for being with us.
Mr. Jacques and Mr. Mahabir, it's wonderful to see you again. I'm sure we'll see you back soon.
Ms. Ryan, I'm glad you brought up sustainability a lot. The PBO has done an annual sustainability report that also includes the long-term sustainability of provincial finances. Will your office be producing that again this year? That's my shameless way of saying “please”.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We've already had a chat about that. There is a backlog of reports that we want to get to parliamentarians that happened because the PBO couldn't publish during the vacancy in the PBO. We will get through that backlog and look at what we can put on the new work plan. That's something that we've all seen a lot of merit in. Share the idea and the details, and let's come back to you.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
I appreciate that. I've looked forward to it. Well, I haven't looked forward to seeing the numbers, but I've appreciated the report every single year, and I certainly would like to see it again this year.
Can I ask you just for a bit of further clarification on Mr. Patzer's question? Were you provided, from this outside contractor, briefing documents before, or was it just a session?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, I prepared my own draft opening statement. They peppered me with a few questions, and I said, “Oh, that's really good; I should say it that way.”
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
That's wonderful.
I'm sure we'll see you again. We have time open at about 1:30 today. We'll see you back.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Thank you again.
Congratulations to the new members and welcome as well.
Quickly, before we go, let's discuss the upcoming calendar.
For everyone's information, we're going to set aside a couple of meetings to finish the CER. We're now done with all our witnesses. We're going to set aside a couple of meetings to do in camera for the report stage. We also have our one meeting with the head of Canada Post. We agreed on three meetings for the buy Canada study. We require witnesses for that by next Thursday at noon. Then, when that is done, we will have a bit of time left over. Marc-Olivier Girard put out the motion that passed, motion 16. We will probably start delving into that. We can worry about witnesses for that in a few weeks once we get through, perhaps, the other items.
We have finished all of our CER witnesses. I'm hoping we can get through it in two days for the report. The analysts have already started working on it. We'll do Canada Post. We've already reached out. Then we'll do the buy Canada study, and then we'll start on motion 16.
Thank you, everyone. We almost got caught up in time. I appreciate everyone's effort on that.
We are adjourned.