Thank you again for the opportunity to discuss this matter with you.
I'm going to be very brief. I'm just going to touch on a few things, because I know you really want to get to questions.
The first is on the situation where we're at. We normally would see, with influenza season, a bit of an uptick in September after the kids come back to school. Then it would settle down. Then we would start seeing more cases again as you move later into the fall and through Christmas. It would really pick up after Christmas and would peak in January and February.
We are seeing clusters and outbreaks scattered across the country in different areas. At this point, obviously, we are continuing to track the numbers week by week to see what's happening. Whether next week there will be more or fewer--to speak to the point of whether we are in the next wave--only time will tell in which direction the cases will go, although as I was remarking at the media event today, for those of us, and many of you, who spend a lot of time on planes, I must say that I've started hearing a lot of coughing on planes, which I hadn't heard a week or two ago. Whether that is H1N1 or whether that is para-influenza or whether it is some other rhinovirus or other thing is hard to say. But obviously, we're paying close attention.
What has provoked a lot of media interest are the as yet unpublished case control studies that looked at people who had received vaccine against seasonal flu in doctors' offices and had then presented and been tested for H1N1, which suggested that somewhere in the range of perhaps twice as many of those who presented and were positive for the new pandemic H1N1 had had a seasonal flu vaccine. That could be for any number of reasons, one of which is that it does increase the risk. Or it could be that those who are more likely to get the vaccine are also more likely to go to a doctor's office and want to be tested for H1N1.
Given that no other country has seen this, and they've looked, and that they have the same, or similar, vaccines as us and have not seen that association.... It is, though, something we've seen now in several provinces when we look at it in the general population. There isn't really a good biological rationale for why that would be. We've never seen it before with influenza vaccines, and we're not seeing it anywhere else.
Again, it's speculative to say at this point, because a lot more work needs to be done to actually understand it, but there are a number of things that make Canadians different. We are a country that immunizes and has a greater awareness of influenza than just about any other country. We immunize more people than anybody else does. We have more campaigns, I think, focused on the importance of influenza vaccine, and so on, and we're fairly conscious of that. Now, would that actually drive people to do that in more ways to create that association? We don't know. It's an association. It's not a cause until we have a better picture of it. But you have to pay attention. You can't ignore that kind of information.
At the same time, we've undertaken some of our own studies, which are a little more easily controlled in terms of those confounding errors, such as looking at hospital and ICU cases. Unlike just choosing to go to a doctor for a viral illness, being admitted to an ICU or a hospital is not a self-selection. Someone else decides for you. There is a clear end point. You're severely ill and you need to be in hospital or in an ICU. In that group, there is no difference between those who are immunized and those who are not immunized. In other words, the rate of immunization is the same in the cases as it is in the controls, which would suggest that there's no increased risk of severe disease. So whether there is an increased risk of developing pandemic H1N1, having received, in the past, an annual flu vaccine, clearly, the evidence we're seeing would suggest that even if that were true, your risk of having severe disease really is no greater, which is pretty reassuring. It's pretty fundamental. But there's still a lot more work to do.
Seasonal flu continues to be a major challenge. We don't know when it will come. Usually it's not, again, until later in the season. We know that we will be seeing H1N1. We are seeing H1N1. The focus of all jurisdictions is to get a vaccine out as rapidly as possible and available for people who wish it, and to deal with the other issues related to a pandemic. There will be variations between the provinces and territories as to how they will roll out and deliver and think about their seasonal flu campaigns. As many don't actually start until mid-October to late October, which is around the time and close to the time when we're anticipating immunization against H1N1, again, as part of their planning, I think this is all fairly prudent.
From the international panel that we commissioned to look at that data, again not suprisingly I expect that what we will see is that yes, they're reasonable studies, but all case-controlled studies like this have confounding errors, self-selection being a major one of them.
I think I'll probably leave it at that for now and await questions.