Sure. My comments are in the context of the strategy I presented, which is that the only way to go forward from here is to carve one giant wave that will just bury us into a number of wavelets that are much smaller. That's what we're going to have to do as a country.
What Dr. Tam's model, the PHAC model, got fatally wrong was to present that this would not necessarily be the case, that there would be no deliberate carving up like this.
By the way, in the model she presented, she was very secretive, because she didn't disclose the methodology, she didn't disclose the data that went into the model and she didn't disclose the mathematical assumptions behind the model. All she presented was the results. That's not how real scientists work.
The models she presented portrayed that if we managed a high degree of social isolation, no more than 10% of the Canadian population would ever become infected with the virus, and then the epidemic would peter away on its own by the fall. This is absolutely, positively wrong, and it's wrong for the reasons that I explained in my opening: Nearly all of us, probably 99% or something like that, have not met the virus and have not developed immunity to it, so if you open up, a very large percentage of us are going to get the virus, not just the 10% of PHAC's estimation.
There is a mathematical model that I wish to share with you—and by the way, the final version of it has gone on the website while we've been talking. That mathematical model comes from scientists at the University of California, Berkeley; the University of California, San Francisco; Imperial College London; the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, and me at the University of Ottawa. What that model says is that, when you release social distancing, when you release the isolation, you will get another big climb that you must manage so it doesn't explode. That's what I mean by having a little curvelet, and you'll have subsequent curvelets after that.
This is something that has to play out until not just 10% of Canada's population has been exposed. It doesn't peter away automatically like that, as PHAC seems to suggest. It's going to be somewhere around half the population that has to be exposed, perhaps more.