I'll start with the last part of your question.
What changed since the original recommendation was that data came out of the U.K., Quebec and B.C. showing that at eight weeks we still had higher than 80% effectiveness, even in the long-term care residences, which to us was a sign that these vaccines are actually quite good.
As I said, given the mathematical modelling, what we did was decrease the vaccine effectiveness over time which...a more or less steeper curve to that decline. Regardless of the decline, giving one dose of vaccine to as many Canadians as possible was the scenario that most decreased the number of hospitalizations and deaths, mainly when you give it now because what's important is now. Maybe Nova Scotia is great, as you don't have that much transmission, but in other provinces it's rampant.
What we want is to decrease transmission as quickly as possible, because then you decrease the risk of having variants come up. A variant happens when the virus replicates and makes a mistake, and that mistake is actually good for it. If it replicates less, because it's transmitting less, then you decrease the risk of those variants occurring. Based on the data, we decided to extend the interval to allow for that first dose to be given to as many people as possible.
I think what is very important in all this is that we have surveillance systems for effectiveness so that we have real-time data of what's happening. In Quebec, B.C. and Alberta, and probably in Nova Scotia as well, people are able to say, “We're now at nine weeks and the vaccine effectiveness is X. We're still good to go. We're now at 10 weeks and the vaccine effectiveness is Y. We're still good to go.” When we see that it decreases anywhere, it's then easy to say, “We're rolling back the vaccines and starting to give that second dose now.”
All it means is that the vaccines are there, instead of decreasing in the people under 60, people with underlying medical conditions between 18 and 59. You bring back those vaccines and you say, “Those who were first vaccinated aged 70 and over, we're now giving it to them.”
We have the ability to follow a vaccine's effectiveness in time, and it is because of this that we're able to say.... We don't have all the data. I would be lying to you if I said we did, but we have the ability to change our recommendations quickly, and the provinces are doing that very well.