Mr. Chair, we have used dynamic modelling to look at some of these scenarios.
In the model I have presented publicly, the scenario is that if you have at least 75% of Canadians getting the first dose—and we were at that time looking at adults 18 years of age and over—as well as 20% getting their second dose, if at that time we lifted, and this would be up to the provinces, of course, the more restrictive measures, we wouldn't have as much of a risk of overwhelming our health system or of hospitalizations. That was one benchmark.
The second benchmark would be to have 75% of Canadians getting both doses. At that point, we're looking towards a hopeful fall season, when people can get back inside and have a reduced risk of transmission and can get back to the things we miss quite a lot. We're looking forward to universities, schools and other of those social settings getting back towards normal without overwhelming the health system. That was a benchmark.
Since then, many of the provinces and territories have come out with their reopening approaches. I think that some of the provinces have indicators and targets that are in that kind of ballpark, but they also take into account the infection rates in their own province and so may go higher or lower, depending upon how much of the population may already, for example, have encountered the virus itself. You'll see a bit of shift in those, depending on the jurisdiction, but they are roughly in that kind of ballpark.