That's certainly a pile of concepts to address, so why don't I get at a couple of things without trying to highlight my bias or give you opinions.
First, on the side of the disincentive to work, it's not, again, as I said earlier, a question of people being lazy. It's a question of people doing what people have done since the dawn of time, which is to make logical assessments about what is in their best interest to do or not to do.
So if you take a look at the 50-year study that I referenced, looking at Maine and New Brunswick, what you find is a long-term trend of higher rates of the use of the employment insurance system, a higher take-up, a higher dependence on it, and that is for both the young working-age males and, disturbingly, women. Unfortunately that seems to be the case throughout all of these numbers, that women and other marginalized groups tend to take the brunt of these kinds of things.
On the investment side, again, to point to a concrete study, the analysis that was done by our institute following the changes that were made in the mid-nineties demonstrated that what you saw as a result of people having lower disincentives to work--in other words, that we didn't pay them quite as much and we didn't encourage them quite as much not to take those opportunities or not to look elsewhere for opportunities--is a raw increase in the number of employment. So you saw more jobs being created, more investment happening. Again, those changes were only in place for a very brief period, so the ability to extrapolate those preliminary findings to something larger is very difficult. But at least the preliminary trends were there.
So on the data side, I think that responds to both your question around investment and the question on the disincentives to work.
On the issue around the additional payments or the concept of rewarding people for long periods of time in employment, I unfortunately do not have any numbers on that. We haven't done an analysis on that exercise, but I think that with many of the comments we've heard here around the fact that EI has to be changed, it has to reflect the new reality of the economy, that it's not simply an exercise where everybody has a 30-year job and we need to have a program that helps them transition from one 30-year job to another. That's where we get into the exercise of whether the incentives are right in the structure.
I don't think this bill or its other two complementary bills, which are tinkering around with little pieces of it, are going to solve the EI problem. I think we need to take a serious look at the issues these folks are raising around women and aboriginal and visible minority groups, but we also have to take a serious listen to the concerns around the business groups, and ask, do we need to start from scratch with this legislation?