Human Resources Committee on Oct. 27th, 2009

[Louis Beauséjour]

That is correct. That explains why the measure will apply for more than one year. Mention is made on page one of the briefing notes that the measure will apply for approximately 20 months. It is estimated that up to 190,000 people could benefit from Bill C-50.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Does the figure of 120,000 also include those who will become claimants during the course of the year? Some people will stop receiving benefits, while others will become claimants.

[Louis Beauséjour]

No. This is an estimated number for a full year. We are basing ourselves on observations made in 2006, on data compiled for 2006, taking into account the increase in the unemployment rate. We found that on annual basis—taking into account all those who begin receiving EI and those who stop receiving EI—120,000 clients meet the definition of “long-tenured worker” and will exhaust their benefits.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Since the eligibility period covers 18 months and the benefit period extends beyond that to October 2010, is it fair to say that in addition to these 120,000 annual claimants, we must also include 60,000 new claimants for six months of the following year?

[Louis Beauséjour]

The measure will apply for 20 months. However, there will be a transition period because fewer and fewer people satisfy the criteria. Consequently, on an annual basis, there stands to be 70,000 more claimants than the 120,000 originally estimated.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

So then, we can say that 190,000 recipients will reach the end of their benefit period.

[Louis Beauséjour]

That is what we have concluded.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

So then, 190,000 claimants will exhaust their benefits. According to your report, 21% of them will be eligible for the measures set out in Bill C-50.

[Louis Beauséjour]

No, that is not what we say in our report. We say that of all EI claimants, 30% meet the definition of “long-tenured worker”.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

I'm not trying to give you a hard time, but over a 20-month period, does this 30% add up to 190,000 claimants?

[Louis Beauséjour]

No.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Fine then.

[Louis Beauséjour]

This 30% is calculated on an annual basis, meaning that 570,000 claimants meet the definition of “long-tenured worker”.

It's simpler to use the methodology. We observed that in 2006, there were approximately 1.35 million unemployed workers. If we adjust the unemployment rate which stood at 6.3% in 2006, we estimate that this rate will be 8.8% in 2009 and 2010. Based on these estimates, we place the number of claimants at 1.9 million in 2009. Based on 2006 data, the number of claimants who meet the definition of “long-tenured worker” is estimated to be 30%. If we multiply 1.9 million by 30%, we come up with a figure of 570,000 claimants, still on an annual basis, who meet the definition of “long-tenured worker”.

We concluded that not everyone would benefit from this measure, even though everyone was entitled to it. Those who will truly benefit are those who will have reached the end of their benefit period. Of the 570,000 claimants, we estimated, still based on 2006 data, that 21% would reach the end of their benefit period and fully exhaust their benefits. We came up with the figure of 120,000 by multiplying 570,000 by 21%. So then, 120,000 claimants meet the definition of “long-tenured worker” and will also be exhausting their benefits, still on an annual basis.

The measure will be in place for 20 months, and provision has been made for a transition period. Therefore, aside from these 120,000 individuals, an additional 70,000 will potentially benefit from this measure over the full period. We added 120,000 and 70,000 and came up with the figure of 190,000 potential EI claimants would stand to benefit from the measure in 2009 and 2010.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

I get the impression that you are telling me exactly what I told you at the outset, but you think otherwise.

Let me rephrase the question. Currently, there are approximately 1,600,000 people out of work. Of this number, 765,000 receive EI benefits and between 28% and 30% of these 765,000 claimants—according to your own figures— will reach the end of their benefit period. In the case of this group of claimants, 21% are eligible for the measures set out in Bill C-50.

[Louis Beauséjour]

No. What I was referring to was the average number of unemployed workers on an annual basis. I have not calculated the exact number of unemployed workers for 2009 and 2010.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

It is simply for the purposes of this exercise.

[Louis Beauséjour]

For the purpose of this exercise, it is important to know that on an annual basis, if we say that there are 500,000 people out of work, most of them will not receive EI benefits for 52 weeks. We agree on that.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

Yes.

[Louis Beauséjour]

So then, this means that for each unemployed worker, I will have different claimants more than once. Basically, I have 2.5 clients for each unemployed worker. If, on an annual basis, I had 500,000 unemployed workers, taking into account the number of claimants, I would multiply 500,000 by 2.5, which would give me, if I'm not mistaken, about 1.3 million claimants for the year. The information that we have on file represents the number of different clients over the course of one year. That explains why the base is much larger than the actual number of unemployed workers. As I said, the number of claimants for 2009 is 1.9 million. We estimate that all of these claimants will have received at least one week of EI benefits during 2009.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

That's what I said at the outset. This is another way of putting it. At times, communication problems make it difficult to understand one another. I understand quite well, it is what I was saying at the very beginning, that this is in addition to all of the other unemployed workers, if you will. I understand now.

Let's consider the parameters that you used. Do you still agree that of those who reach the end of their benefit period, that is 30% of claimants from one generation to another, 21% will be eligible for the measures set out in Bill C-50? Therefore, not every claimant is eligible.

[Louis Beauséjour]

Quite the contrary. In all, 20% of claimants reach the end of their benefit period. According to our information, 20% of claimants exhaust their EI benefits. You have turned the situation around by starting with those who have reached the end of their benefit period and then asking, of those who have exhausted their benefits, which ones meet the definition of long-tenured worker. Here is how we proceeded. First, we identified those claimants that meet the definition of long-tenured worker and determined how many of them reach the end of their benefit period.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

I'm referring to the minister's document which is based on data for 2006. We agree that the same methodology is being used for the year 2009. According to this document, 21% of long-tenured workers exhaust their regular EI benefits.

[Louis Beauséjour]

That is correct.

[Yves Lessard, Bloc, Chambly—Borduas, QC]

You maintain that of this 21%—and I'm merely reversing the figures—30% of this 21%...

[Louis Beauséjour]

No, what I'm saying is that 21% of claimants will exhaust their benefits. Of the 120,000 claimants in total, 21%, not 30% will reach the end of their benefit period.