It depends on who you're talking to and which province you're in. So far we don't have a lot of information at the national level. We have a lot of anecdotal evidence. For example, one of the specialties that's faced with the most job shortages in Canada is orthopedic surgery. So there are many reports of orthopedic surgeons who graduate and can't find jobs. They sub-sub-specialize and become specialists on the tiniest bones in the hands and feet. That makes them less and less employable.
It's certainly happening now. The Ontario Medical Association, in collaboration with the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, made a projection model that was published in 2010. They showed that even in family medicine—these are generalists in Ontario—in 2017 they project an oversupply of family doctors. That is not very far from now.
Speaking for myself, I'm going to start my training in obstetrics and gynecology. In 2012, if I want to work in Ontario, I may not find a job.