I'll make a couple of comments to respond to that.
I gave you the total number of Red Seal exam writings.
You really need to think of two groups. There is a group of people who become apprentices. They follow a formal apprenticeship program, and hopefully they complete it. But the numbers are that about 50% complete it. If you complete a formal apprenticeship program, you get a diploma of apprenticeship, similar to what I showed you earlier. You may have a diploma of apprenticeship with the Red Seal or without the Red Seal.
Upon completion of an apprenticeship program, you'll also get that certificate of qualification. If you're an apprentice, you'll get both a diploma of apprenticeship and a certificate of qualification. If you're not an apprentice, and you go to work in industry, you will get only that certificate of qualification. You won't get the diploma of apprenticeship.
That 47,000 individuals at the Red Seal exam writings are a combination of apprentices who have followed a program and people who have come from industry and want to challenge the final exam.
Our experience across Canada is that around 80% of apprentices, I think, will pass that Red Seal exam on the first try. They have followed a program. They have been to training. They possibly have had a progress record book. They will complete. But of the folks who come from industry and have never been apprentices, 50% fail the exam on the first try. That's why you're seeing that big gap between the number of writings versus the number of people who get Red Seal. It's not necessarily apprentices. It's more the people who were never apprentices. They have worked in industry.
To give you a practical example, in most provinces, except maybe Quebec, you can go to work and call yourself a carpenter. I can slap a “Joe's Carpentry” sign on the side of my truck, and I can go to work as a carpenter. I can do that for 20 years. I may have never been an apprentice, never been certified, and never gone to school, but I can call myself a carpenter. Then if I want to, and I've had enough time in the trade, I can write the exam. Half of those people are going to fail the exam. We attribute that to their not having followed an apprenticeship program. They haven't followed a structure. They haven't gotten all the training. They haven't covered the full scope of the trade. Therefore, they fail the exam.
That's the distinction between apprentices and trade qualifiers, and that's why you're seeing such a big gap.
There is a challenge, as well, in terms of ensuring that apprentices complete. Both Shaun and Sarah alluded to that. Not all of our apprentices are completing. They start but they don't finish. I would say that it's a similar challenge in that not all people who start university finish university. Not all people who start college finish college. Not all people who want to be nurses become nurses. There are the same types of challenges, career changes, life changes, or perspective changes. Whatever happens, there's a challenge.