Yes. I think where we see these projects coming forward from community level organizations, from collaboratives of foundations and service providers, from various community constituents that they're actually coalescing around, this is a tool that can provide—I would really focus on—additionality to what exists now. This isn't about a transfer of what already exists into these tools; it's around that additionality.
Just to be clear, because I think there are a few concepts that have swirled around, we acknowledge that social impact bonds will be more expensive than direct contracting; therefore, they should be understood as a tool where greater value for money can be achieved where there are uncertain outcomes. We don't know what's going to happen, and it can serve as an on-ramp where we can beta test things, we can trial, we can experiment, so that when there is that certainty, it may make sense to expand and invest with public sector dollars.
I think there have been some misconceptions raised. Overall, only four out of 44 social impact bonds globally use a principal guarantee, and those were some of the first ever launched. That's less than 10%. None have used it since 2013, which is when most SIBs were launched.
When we think about the kinds of returns that people are talking about, we often hear our critics cite this notion that these are uncapped returns. It's false. It's not true. In every single social impact bond there's a capped return, a maximum payment that can possibly be paid. Equally, people will often cite that maximum payment. They won't cite the actual target returns that are expected from these vehicles. So let's look at that a little bit.
The first social impact bond in Canada, if successful in an outcome, will pay a 5% return. I don't think that's audacious. Overall, target rates of return have usually been between the 4% and 7% band, again, not really outrageous.
Even in the Peterborough case, at its minimum performance threshold it would pay only 2.5% as a rate of return. Now, it has an upside. It can do better, but that rate of return is entirely linked with its performance. We think that's a very good thing. We think that incentivizes everyone around the table to actually focus on the sort of change we want to see in our communities.