Thank you very much, Mr. Casey.
The title of my very, very brief presentation this afternoon is “Employment Insurance Reforms for the Post-Pandemic Period”.
The first point I would like to raise is that this pandemic was a once-in-a-century catastrophe, and the economic impact of this pandemic has also been quite distinct from that of the previous recession of 2008-09, for example. When I say once in a century, I hope that we have to wait more than a century in the future before something like this happens again.
I'm assuming that the labour market recovery, the economic recovery, will be nearly complete by the end of this year, 2021, so the first point that I would like to assert is that we should not implement major and permanent reforms to the EI regime in the post-pandemic period based on what's happened right now in the pandemic era labour market. Having said that, I think there are definitely some lessons to be learned in the pandemic-induced recession now. There was a depression for two or three months in the spring of 2020. I'm assuming that much of the recovery will be done by the end of this year, so I'm going to talk about reforms under those premises.
Regarding the fallout, the rate of long-term unemployment has risen substantially. Canada has generally fared quite well compared to many other countries as far as long-term unemployment is concerned, and so I fear that some workers will be laid off permanently. We are going to have to allocate more resources towards retraining, skills development, literacy and essential skills for those workers who will never be able to return to their prior jobs. This, I note, is an ongoing challenge of targeting workers on the periphery of the labour market with efficacious employment benefit and support measures.
I'd also like to talk about a topic that was brought up in the prior session, gig workers. We all know that gig workers in certain occupations have been hit very, very hard by this pandemic. This includes my younger daughter, who aspires to be an opera diva in the live entertainment industry. She has had her career put on hold for at least a two-year period, so I want to address the issue of whether EI coverage can be extended to gig workers.
I have a piece that was published recently in Policy Options. It is really short, current and totally accessible. My co-author, Colin Busby at the Institute for Research in Public Policy, and I argue that a step in the right direction would be to try to get more and more gig workers covered under the labour code so they're more like employees rather than self-employed people. There is no official definition of what constitutes gig workers as far as Statistics Canada is concerned. The dividing line between self-employment and gig employment is quite fuzzy from both a legal point of view—I think some changes are possible there—and from a practical point of view.
We should note that some gig workers have other jobs, so some gig workers are just moonlighting. An advantage would be the major welfare gains, as we economists say, for certain gig workers in the face of unpredictable shocks beyond their control, which leave them unemployed temporarily. Ideally, it would be desirable to at least partially plug a hole in the social safety net that does not cover gig workers.
However, many challenges would be involved. There are hardly any instances in the industrialized world where governments provide unemployment insurance benefits to self-employed workers. I fear that many would opt out of it if given the opportunity, so we might have to make participation mandatory in the interests of solvency. That would definitely spur some opposition.
We have to wrestle with the issue of eligibility, for instance. Eligibility would have to be based on prior earnings as the unit of account. It's far more administratively convenient for employment insurance when we base eligibility on hours worked as the unit of account.