Thank you for having me here today.
I'm a long-time housing policy consultant and also am affiliated with research centres both at McMaster University and Carleton. I've spent about 40 years studying housing issues, particularly housing affordability issues.
In response to a call for ideas from CMHC back in January, I did submit a detailed brief discussing the issues of housing supply, the relationship between housing supply and affordability and the recent escalation in home prices and rents and provided some suggestions on how to structure the proposed accelerator fund. I've shared that with the committee. I think it's in translation. You'll get it in a week or so, I think.
I'd like to take one step back, though, from this question of how to actually use the fund and ask a more fundamental question: Do we actually need it? Do we need to spend $4 billion on an issue that has been defined as supply?
I'm not convinced that the issue that's causing home prices and rents to go up is primarily caused by supply issues. I think it's caused more by issues on the demand side of the market. Therefore, if we've diagnosed the problem incorrectly, spending money to fix the problem isn't going to actually solve the problem. I think there's a lack of evidence.
The corollary is, if we have a lack of supply, will increasing supply actually fix the affordability, this issue of excessive rents and excessive home prices? The evidence I present in the brief suggests that wouldn't actually be the case.
In terms of the argument that we have undersupply, certainly if we look at it over the last 20 years, we've actually had a fairly robust supply response. For every 1,000 people that we increase our population by, we've been building 540 homes on average. That's 1.85 people per home, compared to a national average of 2.4, so we've actually built enough to meet this.
We did have a surge in population growth in 2017-20 just before the COVID crisis, which did cause some pressures on the housing market. However, most of that increase in population at that point in time was from non-permanent residents—temporary foreign workers and, particularly, international students—which would have had more effect on the rental market and rents than it would have had on home prices in causing that particular problem.
I think that what has caused the double-digit increase in prices we've seen over the COVID period in two years has much more to do with the demand side, particularly the access to cheap financing, which increased significantly with the decline in interest rates. More particularly, as house prices have gone up, three-quarters of the people buying a home are existing homeowners. If the value of their equity just doubled, their ability to bid when they go out and purchase their new home is significantly enhanced. This concept of supercharged demand, enabled by these bagfuls of equity and windfall gains from sleeping in their beds at night, along with low interest rates, is really a much more significant factor in pushing up home prices—and, to some extent, rents—than is the lack of supply.
If the cause of increases is more on the demand side, will an initiative that actually increases supply solve the problem of excessively high home prices?
If we look at housing stocks last year, we saw a peak level up 33% over the average of the last 10 years to 271,000 units nationally, so the industry has responded and municipalities have responded. I think the issue now is, how do we sustain that level of supply as opposed to having to double the supply, as was proposed in the budget?
In the kind of supply we're seeing, though, the median price of new homes completed in 2020-21 was up 40%. We increased supply by 33% and prices went up by 40%. In the rental market in the last five years, we have seen a very significant increase in rental supply, which we saw very little of for about 15 or 20 years prior to 2016, but along with that, the average rent of rental units completed since 2016 nationally is 45% higher than the average market rent. Here in Ottawa, it's 65% to 70% higher than the average market rent.
So we're producing new supply, but we're not addressing the fundamental issue of whether that supply is affordable to lower- and middle-income renters or enables young households to access the home ownership market.
I think my first suggestion to the committee would be to actually define the problem correctly and see if this is the right kind of response. If indeed we do want to go forward with the accelerator fund, then I think it has to be very surgically targeted to specifically address the affordability issues.
Basically, incenting municipalities and rewarding municipalities for increasing the supply of family-oriented, ground-oriented homes below certain price criteria would be an effective way to do that. We had a similar initiative in 1975 under the federal housing assistance program, and it provided municipal incentive grants to municipalities to do just those types of things.
The issue here is really about defining the problem correctly. If we want to address affordability, let's be very precise about that and design the programs to come up with ideas that specifically address affordability.
Thank you.