I do agree. We can see that the major refugee-producing countries are all engaged in protracted crisis situations. Take South Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria and Yemen as examples. The lack of the ability of the Security Council and world leaders to resolve and stop these conflicts is something that will be judged hard by history.
Displacement, however, is often not for only one reason, which is what the large dataset from the 22,000 interviews we did shows. We are working now with IBM and the supercomputer Watson to use this dataset, combined with around 30 to 40 other data sources, to develop a predictive capacity in order to see if we can, first and foremost, be better at preventing displacement, if we can do more to protect people who are displaced, and if we can do more to predict where people will leave from and where they will go. The first algorithms will be developed using the IBM Watson supercomputer.
The dataset already shows us that people move for a variety of reasons, be they migrants or refugees. They can move because of conflict. They can move because of drought. They can move because of the loss of a family member. They can move because of job aspirations. Often it is not only one factor that drives displacement. It's often a complexity of multiple factors that will drive people to move.
It also shows the complexities of mixed migration or mixed movement, where you may have refugees and migrants walking side by side. You may also have vulnerable migrants who, en route, will shift status from migrant to refugee because of the violations they face or their inability to return home. It is a complex picture, but definitely conflict is the main driver. The inability of the international community to resolve these conflicts will be judged very hard by history.