Thank you, Madam Chair.
I'd like to thank the committee for this invitation to speak to you on some of the questions that I've been asking regarding increased immigration in the short and the longer terms.
Canada is unique in the world given its general positive consensus in favour of immigration. Debates and discussions tend to revolve around the details, the levels, the categories, the requirements and the administration, rather than whether immigration is good for Canada. My critique of the large increases in immigration levels should be considered in that context.
Arguments for increased immigration are largely demographic based, given our aging population, but these arguments often fail to consider other factors, along with the global trend of a declining population in most countries. Moreover, evidence indicates that more immigration will not “substantially alter Canada's age structure and impending increase in the dependency ratio”.
I have both short- and longer-term concerns.
In the short term, is it really fair from an equity perspective to maintain levels of over 400,000 given the greater impact of COVID in sectors where women, immigrants and visible minorities are concentrated? How quickly are the hospitality, travel and retail sectors likely to bounce back?
More generally, will the current downturn be more like the 1990-91 recession and the scarring of immigrant economic outcomes, both in the short term and, in some cases, the longer term, or will it be more like the 2008-09 recession, which left immigrants largely unscathed?
I enjoyed listening to the presentation by the Alberta witnesses and their explanation of the importance of immigration in rural areas, but I think we have to recognize that only about 9% of recent immigrants settle outside our major urban areas, so we have to question how realistic the call is for more immigrants to settle outside our major cities and urban areas. While the provincial nominee program and the Atlantic immigration program have had success, most new immigrants continue to settle in the larger provinces and urban centres.
Also, more thinking is needed with respect to sectors and workers that are more likely to be vulnerable to automation, artificial intelligence and remote work. Will professionals such as accountants, lawyers and other white-collar occupations become increasingly replaced? What about the cashiers and Amazon packers? Also, will remote work lead to more offshoring?
Will governments invest in the needed public and private infrastructure needed to accommodate such growth, ranging from roads, transit, housing and health care to utilities and parks, as Doug Saunders argues in Maximum Canada ?
Canada also has difficulties meeting its climate change commitments: How likely is it that Canada will be able to do so with a significant increase in population, given likely further urban sprawl?
Furthermore, will the general consensus among provincial governments in favour of more immigration increasingly confront the reality of Quebec's reduced percentage of the Canadian population and thus increasing imbalance between population and representation in our major political and judicial institutions? How will indigenous peoples, the fastest-growing group in Canada, perceive more interest in increased immigration compared to addressing their socio-economic and political issues, which we've been reminded of this past week?
I raise these questions to stimulate a needed discussion on immigration to ensure that we consider both the benefits and costs in a manner that maintains the overall confidence of Canadians in immigration. Immigration is too important to Canada's present and future for these issues to be ignored and merits a full-scale review or commission covering immigration, settlement and citizenship. Any such review, of course, should include a diversity of views from those supporting increased immigration levels as well as those who have concerns.
I recognize that there is a risk of having these discussions, but there is an equal risk of not having these discussions nor raising some of these concerns. As noted, the worldwide trend is towards declining and aging populations. While Canada may be able to counter this trend in the shorter term, Canada also needs to prepare with a range of policies and programs beyond increases in immigration.