Thank you. I think that is an absolutely core question that not enough people are asking.
I think they're different threats. Again, even “threat” is strong language when we're thinking about what they are to the Canadian Arctic.
Certainly, in light of the absolutely atrocious war that Russia launched on Ukraine in 2014 and has further accelerated in the last few months, my trust level for Russia is very low. However, I think within a Canadian Arctic context, it's not particularly coveting our resources. In essence, there are some natural alignments in our concerns about certain changes to the status of shipping routes in terms of access for international transit traffic and so on.
I don't think, within a Canadian Arctic context, that Russia is primarily a competitor. It is in terms of North American defence, the defence of Europe, our allies and NATO. It absolutely is. It's an urgent challenge that needs to be met—and we are meeting it with our allies—but I don't see it as a primary threat in the Canadian Arctic or to the Canadian Arctic.
For China and its interests, I do not see it at this stage as a primarily military threat. I see it, primarily, as a risk relating to foreign direct investment, clarity of what China's interests are within the region, and scientific activities as a way of normalizing the presence of a country that has self-declared itself to be a near-Arctic state. It is suggesting that this, somehow, gives it a status somewhat close to that of Arctic states, but it has no bearing in international law or the international order.
I don't think that China is inherently an adversary in the Arctic, and it's not necessarily best to jump ahead and frame it as such in a specific Arctic context. However, we have to think about and be vigilant in how we're looking at China, as both a potential collaborator on certain initiatives—like mitigating global climate change—and, at the same time, an economic and strategic competitor in the global context, and what that means in terms of our relationships in the Arctic.