Thank you.
I have three main recommendations to prepare for this new Arctic security paradigm.
The first is one the government has already undertaken and that is to adequately fund NORAD modernization. I want to express my support for this position and I hope, as I know all of you do, that northern indigenous communities and businesses will benefit economically from the investments being made and be included in the civilian decision-making processes. Nuclear deterrence and continental defence are not luxuries that we can put on the back burner any longer.
The second is for Canada to welcome and support a stronger NATO presence in the Arctic. Both Conservative and Liberal governments have opposed this in the past for good reasons, but the imperative to defend against Russia, especially as the northern flank of NATO will get much larger with Finland and Sweden joining, is now much different. I will say that the probability of military conflict in the Canadian Arctic remains very low but it is much higher in northern Europe and especially in the Baltics and around the Barents Sea. Canada should be prepared to support its allies there.
The third recommendation, which has been less discussed, is how to proceed with the Arctic Council. It is currently on pause and the question of how and to what extent to involve Russia is being debated now in foreign ministries in Washington, Oslo, Copenhagen, Helsinki and beyond. There are no easy answers but I am convinced that the Arctic Council cannot go on as it has and must become an A7. I cannot imagine having ministerial meetings and family photos with Sergei Lavrov or any other Russian minister so long as Putin is in power. Any regime change will take years and Putin may be replaced by someone worse. It will be too long to simply pause, so we must evolve.
There remain issues that require communication and even co-operation with Russia, such as understanding and mitigating the impacts of climate change, managing the development of fisheries in the Arctic Ocean, and regulating marine shipping. I believe we can create space for this to be done at a technical level and on issue-specific concerns without the restraints and concessions that a regional organization such as the Arctic Council would impose.