Good morning, everyone.
I will go through it again so the French speakers can benefit. I will start with the three recommendations to prepare for the new Arctic security paradigm.
The first is one that the government has undertaken, and that is to adequately fund NORAD modernization. I want to express my support for their position and my hope, which I know all of you share, that northern indigenous communities and businesses benefit economically from the investments being made and are included in the decision-making processes. Nuclear deterrence and continental defence are not luxuries that we can put on the back burner any longer.
The second is for Canada to welcome and support a stronger NATO presence in the Arctic. Both Conservative and Liberal governments have opposed this in the past for good reasons, but the imperative to defend against Russia, especially as the northern flank of NATO will get much larger with Finland and Sweden joining, is now much different. I will say that the probability of military conflict in the Canadian Arctic remains very low, but it is much higher in northern Europe, especially in the Baltics and around the Barents Sea, and Canada should prepare to support its allies there.
The third, which has been less discussed, is how to proceed with the Arctic Council. It is currently on pause, and the question of how and to what extent to involve Russia is being debated in foreign ministries in Washington, Oslo, Copenhagen, Helsinki and beyond. There are no easy answers, but I am convinced that the Arctic Council cannot go on as it has and must become an A7. I cannot imagine having ministerial meetings and family photos with Sergei Lavrov or any other Russian minister as long as Putin is in power. Any regime change will take years, and Putin may be replaced by someone worse. It will take too long to just pause, so we must evolve.
There remain issues that require communication and even co-operation with Russia such as understanding and mitigating the impacts of climate change, managing the development of fisheries in the Arctic Ocean or regulating marine shipping. I believe we can create space for this to be done at a technical level and on issue-specific concerns without the restraints and concessions that a regional organization such as the Arctic Council would impose.
I want to conclude by reiterating for the committee that Russia has taken the choice of pursuing Arctic co-operation away from us. The West did everything possible to make it work and maintain a zone of peace for three decades, but now they have pushed us into a position where we can no longer paper over our differences. Russia has started a war of aggression. Russia has committed war crimes. Russia has threatened nuclear warfare, and Russia has plunged Europe and the world into an energy crisis.
There is a fine line between co-operation and appeasement, and, in retrospect, I fear we crossed it with our reaction to Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Because of our muted response, Russia was emboldened to invade Ukraine and commit its war crimes, and now the world is in crisis.
It is not business as usual anywhere, least of all the Arctic. Canada can lead in creating new processes, institutions and co-operation without them, not to antagonize Russia, but to deter them from future aggression.
Thank you.