Good morning.
Mr. Chairman and members of this House subcommittee on Canadian industrial sectors, my name is David Daly. I'm the manager of fiscal policy for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.
Thank you for inviting CAPP to appear in front of you to discuss the impact of the economic recession on our industry.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, or CAPP, represents 130 companies that explore for, develop, and produce more than 95% of Canada's natural gas and crude oil. CAPP also has 150 associate members who provide a wide range of services that support the upstream oil and gas industry. Together, these members and associate members are an important part of the multi-billion-dollar-a-year national industry that affects the livelihood of more than half a million Canadians.
We live in some of the most perilous times we've seen since the 1930s. People are out of work, factories are closing down, families are losing their homes. The global economic crisis has sunk its tentacles into this country, and every part of Canada has been affected.
We are no exception. The recession has hit the Canadian oil and gas industry where we do business. We provide the energy to fuel factories, heat homes, and let people drive their cars. The slowdown in economic activity means our customer, the world, is cutting back and using less of what we produce. When the world buys less, the price goes down. We all know how the price has dropped in the last few months, from a record high of $147 a barrel last summer to lows in the $35-a-barrel range a few weeks ago—neither of which is seen by industry as being a sustainable price valuation, by the way.
Recently oil prices have bounced off their lows and are now trading around the $50-a-barrel mark. This is still a far cry from what some new projects need to get themselves off the ground, though. Many large projects, such as oil sands construction projects, have been deferred, and these deferrals are having employment impacts across the country. Oil sands facility components are often created and assembled in Atlantic provinces or Ontario or Quebec. Project deferrals in Alberta have had a subsequent impact on the national manufacturing sector, while construction jobs that supported labour from coast to coast to coast have been discontinued.
But it's not just oil prices that are a concern. In fact, our industry produces and sells more natural gas than it does crude oil. What happens in the marketplace for natural gas has an even bigger impact on the industry overall. Gas was at more than $11 per thousand cubic feet last June; today it trades at a little more than $3. With this unprecedented drop in prices, we've gone from being a $150-billion-a-year industry back in 2008, just last year, to about an $80-billion-a-year industry today, at least in the view of one financial analyst.
The effect on industry cashflow has been immediate. A large number of projects have been stalled. The number of wells drilled this year will be half of that at the peak in 2005, and people are losing their jobs. In March, employment in Canada's natural resources industries fell for the second month in a row. The country lost 11,000 resource jobs in March. We expect unemployment rates to continue to increase, in keeping with CAPP's drilling forecast, which estimates that drilling will be reduced by 1,100 wells from last year. With approximately 120 workers employed by each drilling rig, this represents significant job losses.
Despite the easing of interest rates by central banks around the world, credit still remains tight for a lot of companies, especially the small and medium-sized producers. Combine the steep drop in cashflows with tight credit and it's easy to see why activity levels are down. Investment levels are off by one-third from last year. Now at $34 billion a year, they still make our industry the largest private sector investor in Canada, but that loss of $16 billion will be felt by suppliers and workers from coast to coast.
Make no mistake about it: Canada's oil and gas producers know a thing or two about business cycles. I can't say that we invented the term “boom or bust”, but we've certainly lived through the cycle many times. We're a commodities business; ups and downs are in the very nature of what we do. We've lived through downturns in the past, and the industry will live through this one, although many companies may struggle to survive.
In the short term, this industry will go through its contraction pains like any other industry in Canada, but once the economy starts to turn around—and it's anybody's guess when that will happen—the Canadian petroleum industry will be poised to meet growing demand once again. We're the third-largest producer of natural gas in the world and the seventh-largest producer of crude oil in the world. We have the second-largest reserves of crude oil in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia.
We have an impact on individual Canadians through their investments, RRSPs, and pensions, since a quarter of the value of shares traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange is from oil and gas stocks.
Governments are some of the biggest beneficiaries of the oil and gas industry. Through a combination of royalties and taxes, federal and provincial governments collected $30 billion last year from the industry.
The oil and gas industry is here for the long term. When world energy demand rebounds and continues to grow in Canada, Canadian supplies will be there to meet it. As our conventional sources of oil and gas continue to mature, new sources of unconventional supplies, such as oil sands and shell gas, will more than make up the difference. Even with the growing emphasis on alternative fuels development, oil and gas will continue to be a growing part of the world energy pie. That's the long term.
In the meantime, in order to get from here to there, we face some significant challenges today. I've already touched on some of the issues of demand destruction, commodity price declines, financial market instability, slowing investment, and decreased activity. Even with some pullback in markets for steel and labour, costs still remain high. However, our most significant challenges seem to be in competitiveness, environmental performance, and public perceptions of the industry.
One thing governments in Canada had been able to do for decades was to underpin a volatile business with a stable, business-encouraging fiscal platform. This has produced a tremendous amount of national wealth for the country as a whole, including GDP growth, trade, investment, and employment.
Governments have come to realize, especially since the early eighties, that when business succeeds, the country succeeds. When the country succeeds, the country grows and prospers.
The federal government realized long ago that in a medium-sized open economy like Canada's, encouraging investment capital to come into the economy and generate activity is a key to encouraging productivity and growth.
The federal government has done a good job of paving the way for a competitive fiscal environment by reducing business taxes and encouraging the provinces to do the same. This encourages capital investment in Canada.
Environmental performance in terms of air, water, and land issues is important, as is energy security and economic prosperity, including employment. We believe in a balanced approach that considers all of these aspects. This applies to all of our industry. However, the oil sands have been the focus of a lot of attention lately, so let me talk about them for a bit.
The oil sands are a strategic Canadian resource, one that provides strong security of supply for North America and one that will remain a major component of the future energy mix.
On environmental matters, we are listening to the concerns of government and communities, and we're taking action. As you know, Canada accounts for 2% of the global greenhouse gas emissions from energy. Of that, oil sands account for 5% of Canada's total. Producers are continuing to reduce their carbon intensity and are contributing to Alberta's Energy Environment Technology Fund, set up specifically to encourage carbon reduction through industry action and the development of new technology.
Since 1990, the greenhouse gas intensity of the oil sands has been reduced by 38%. Carbon capture and enhanced oil recovery and storage are all being looked at to help us to do more.
In comparison to other crude fuel types entering North America, oil sands have similar, if not favourable, life cycle greenhouse gas emissions compared to the oil that comes from Mexico, Venezuela, and even California. These emissions are about 15% higher than those of light crude oil from, say, Saudi Arabia.
Industry continues to reduce its use of fresh water and relies more and more on recycling the water it uses, most of which is not drinkable and heads back into its own operations. Oil sands mining operations now recycle up to 95% of water, and in situ projects are increasingly using non-potable water from deep saline aquifers in their processes. Some projects, such as Devon Energy's Jackfish project, are using 100% non-potable water.
Our land management strategy is focused on minimizing the industry's footprint and ongoing reclamation.
What's needed for continuous improvement of our environmental stewardship is the continuing and concentrated commitment to technology development. It's technological advances that will have the greatest impact on our continuing to reduce carbon emissions, lowering the amount of freshwater use, and minimizing the land use footprint of exploration development activity. This includes direct investment in and support for new technologies like carbon capture and storage.
At this moment, industry is at the toughest point we've seen in over a decade. Activity levels are down, investment is off, and jobs are disappearing. The impact is being felt across the country in terms of jobs, equipment, and material. But we remain optimistic. Canada has a strong resource potential and an upstream oil and gas industry that will supply Canada and North America's energy needs for a long time to come.
Tight capital markets remain a concern. To the extent the federal government can continue to encourage credit availability, this will help the industry weather the storm.
The future resource potential remains strong, and industry continues to be optimistic about achieving this potential. But one thing is very clear: technology has been, and will continue to be, the key to unlocking that future. Technology has been the cornerstone of the oil and gas industry.
Looking forward, we will continue to need government support in driving these innovations forward, to unlock abundant but difficult resources, to address the environmental challenges, and to continue to generate economic benefits, jobs, and government revenues across the country.
With that, Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for your time, and I look forward to addressing your questions.