Industry Committee on March 8th, 2011

[Dan McTeague, Liberal, Pickering—Scarborough East, ON]

Mr. Chair, I have a point of order. Given the time warp I was put through, perhaps you could let me know if I still have a few seconds left at the end there, considering the intervention by the Conservatives.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Sweet]

No, you're actually over.

[Dan McTeague, Liberal, Pickering—Scarborough East, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Sweet]

I would do that for you.

Mr. Masse, you have five minutes.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

One of the things that has been noted is that Manitoba is putting $500,000 towards advertising to assist in that, Mr. Smith. Do you believe that other provinces are going to need to do that to get the results that are necessary?

[Wayne Smith]

Historically, in every census we've had excellent support from provincial governments. They've supported us in all kinds of ways. They put up road signs on highways and they put links to our information on their websites. We've had a high level of support.

I'm not suggesting that the $500,000 that Manitoba is proposing to put into advertising is exceptional or unusual in the pattern of censuses. We've always had that kind of support. I expect we will have it again. In fact, I have every indication already that we'll have it again. The Yukon has also made some specific commitments, and I expect that the other provinces will follow.

Normally they have done it in kind, and we would never quite know what the value of it was, but in this case they specifically made a commitment to $500,000. It's not exceptional, and it's not unique to this census.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

The obvious motivation there is to increase the participation, though; that's the whole objective behind the increased dollars.

[Wayne Smith]

In previous censuses, that was still the motivation. In every census, the motivation of people who support us is to encourage people to participate in order to get the highest possible response rate and the best-quality data.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

At the end of the day, that was mandatory.

In a province like mine, Ontario, where I have a low response rate in Windsor West—that's why we were actually part of the complete count, one of three ridings that had door-to-door counting—what if they don't? The province is in massive debt right now. What if they don't advertise and we have a lower response rate, and then Manitoba has a higher response rate per capita? Won't that skew data?

[Wayne Smith]

The answer is, not necessarily. The response rate will be lower, the sampling area will be higher, the risk of non-response error we talked about earlier will be higher—which doesn't mean there will necessarily be non-response error--but beyond that—

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

I have one of the most diverse ridings in North America, actually. It's third in Canada. We have a lot of language and other barrier issues, poverty issues, and we have a lot of newcomers, students who come and go, and so forth. Let's say, for example, that the Manitoba government is able to increase the response rate for Winnipeg versus that of Windsor. Wouldn't it skew the overall data, if we actually had a higher rate of response from one city versus the other?

[Wayne Smith]

That's something that's always the case. We don't have uniform response rates across the country; there's always variation.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

Well, no. In the past you had a mandatory census; you would actually go out and get those things, and you'd have a higher rate. You also knew specifically who didn't respond and where they lived.

[Wayne Smith]

We will know that in this one as well, quite easily, because we'll have the data from the census part of the exercise. We will know exactly who was supposed to respond in the NHS, and where they lived, and we'll have basic information about them.

Response rates vary across population groups and across the country. We had a tremendous problem, for example, in northern Alberta in 2006. That's par for the course. The issue is whether the data are usable, and that's—

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

The problem is that you can't say either, and you're in charge of a $670 million project. If every single province is now going to be measured in terms of throwing out different amounts of funds, whereas in the past we actually had the backstop of a mandatory census, if we're now going to have additional dollars disproportionately assigned for advertising across the board, won't that create some weaknesses in the system that didn't exist before?

[Wayne Smith]

First of all, there is a mandatory population count that will give us the head counts that are used for equalization payments and so on, so that's not really in question.

I repeat, these kinds of activities are not unique to 2011. They have been carried out before, and there were differential activities across the country. There are differential response rates across the country and within provinces for all kinds of good and bad reasons.

We make an effort to concentrate our efforts in areas where we have low response rates in order to get them up. Our goal is to have relatively uniform response rates across the country, but I cannot say whether the simple fact that Manitoba has advertised, and that this may have some beneficial impact on response rates in Manitoba, creates a problem in Ontario.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

But you can't say that it won't, either; that's the problem. There was no pilot project for this, which is really quite unusual.

Have you heard of a country moving to a national survey rather than a mandatory survey and not actually testing it? Can you name an example of a country that did that?

[Wayne Smith]

I'm not aware of any precedent for that, no.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Sweet]

That will be it, Mr. Masse. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much, Mr. Smith.

Now we'll go to Mr. Lake for five minutes.

[Mike Lake, Conservative, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, AB]

I'm just going to come back to Ms. Bennett, if I could.

I still wasn't clear on why 1971 was chosen for that second clause, and why 2006 was not.

[Carolyn Bennett, Liberal, St. Paul's, ON]

It really was just an example of the first time there was a short and a long form. If people would like to make an amendment to that, then I am more than willing. This is our best shot at coming forward and trying to explain the difference. Before 1971 there was only a long-form census; when the short form came in, it was in 1971.

One of the concerns I have is that maybe you should ask your minister.... On the Stats Canada website right now, where it says that they assumed a response rate of 50% for the voluntary national household survey, the conclusion says that--

[Mike Lake, Conservative, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, AB]

I have a point of order, Mr. Chair. That wasn't the question I asked, and I have a few questions I want to ask.

[Carolyn Bennett, Liberal, St. Paul's, ON]

It says “introduced”. It was just following up on Mr. Masse's.... It says:

... introduced relatively rapidly with limited testing.

[Mike Lake, Conservative, Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont, AB]

She's not answering my question.

[Carolyn Bennett, Liberal, St. Paul's, ON]

It concludes, with reference to the effectiveness of their mitigation strategy, that:

It will not, however, provide a level of quality that would have been achieved through a mandatory long-form census

That's why we put the bill forward.