Industry Committee on March 8th, 2011

[Wayne Smith]

We're doing quite a few things. One of the things we're doing is....

First of all, in reality, in the national household survey there will be very little non-response, because we have the responses from the 2011 census itself, so we have a certain amount of data for all of the households that are sampled for the national household survey. That, right there, is a major leg-up compared with what you might have in another non-response situation.

We're going to be focusing our efforts on follow-up across the country in trying to get a very uniform response rate. We're going to sub-sample non-respondents and focus on certain areas in order to get the highest possible response rates for those individuals. We're also going to be directing samples towards areas in which we have known low response rates from previous censuses.

Once we get the data to Statistics Canada, we'll be using all of the auxiliary information that we have from other sources, such as, for example, income tax records, to help us identify any potential problems and correct for them.

Without getting into all the technicalities of it, there is quite a large amount that we can do to mitigate against possible bias in the data. We cannot eliminate it completely, but we can certainly improve it.

[Mike Wallace, Conservative, Burlington, ON]

I appreciate that.

I'm assuming you'll be filling out the national household survey yourself. Will you be filling it out if you get it at your house?

[Wayne Smith]

Only if I'm sampled.

[Voices]

Oh, oh!

[Wayne Smith]

But one in three people in this room will be. I can guarantee you that pretty much.

[Mike Wallace, Conservative, Burlington, ON]

For us, as members of Parliament.... I think I have a responsibility in terms of educating my own riding and trying to encourage them to fill out the survey.

When will it hit the doors of individuals?What is the length of time that people have to respond in and so on? What's the process from here?

[Wayne Smith]

As I mentioned, in the north we have already started. In the south, at the beginning of May we will start mailing out to Canadians, asking them to participate in the census itself. Initially some people will be invited to respond by Internet. Others will receive questionnaires. Some people will receive visits at the door.

By the beginning of June, actually, we should have a good idea of where we're going to have problems and where people aren't responding. We'll then go out and start knocking on doors to chase down the households from which we haven't yet had a response for the census.

The people who are in the national household survey in the north are already being enumerated. If they are being invited to respond via the Internet for the census, they'll also be allowed to complete the national household survey at the same time. So as early as May, they'll be responding. Everybody else will have the questionnaire mailed to them in June. By the beginning of July, we will start doing follow-up at the doorstep, and by mid-August we expect to be out of the field.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Sweet]

Thank you very much, Mr. Smith and Mr. Wallace.

I think it's a very good idea to make sure that 308 representatives of the people of Canada have an opportunity to promote the census and the national household survey as well.

Now we'll have Mr. Masse, for seven minutes.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

How much is the total cost of the census?

[Wayne Smith]

Mr. Chair, the total cost of the census is $660 million, of which $15 million is in a contingency fund that may not be spent if we don't need it.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

And how much was the last census?

[Wayne Smith]

I don't have that number here. It was slightly below that, but of the same approximate magnitude.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

How much of purchasing of the census took place over the last year...since the last census?

[Wayne Smith]

I'm sorry. I missed the first part of the question.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

How many purchases of the census or census material took place from the last census until this one right now? If you don't have that, maybe we can have that figure tabled. I'm just curious to see what revenue—

[Wayne Smith]

You can certainly have that tabled. I think our goal was $10 million of sales of various types—custom tabulations and various products. I think we've overachieved it, but I'm not absolutely certain of the number, so I'll make sure we get back to you.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

I think it's much more than that, so I'd like to see the.... Maybe we can get a full revenue stream of what the last census took in by way of purchases and usage.

With regard to the door-to-door door-knocking that's going on, I was actually part of the complete count in 2000 in the city of Windsor. I was in charge of it as a city councillor in the community. What percentage of Canada will get a knock on the door through this census?

[Wayne Smith]

Well, ultimately it depends on the response rate. For the census, we will go to every door that doesn't respond.... If we have the response rate we anticipate, we may be going to 40% to 45% of the households. If the initial mail-back response...it could be higher, depending on whether the response rate is below what our expectations are. It could be lower if a higher proportion of Canadians send back their questionnaires without any follow-up from us. We really won't know until we get there.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

Your number of 85% worries me, because you're going very much to secure, secluded communities with a big publicity campaign and doing door-to-door enumeration, which is different.

I just want to ask, is the national farm survey still going to be mandatory?

[Wayne Smith]

Well, the national farm survey always has been, but I think you mean the census of agriculture.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

Yes. I'm sorry, the census of agriculture. And the short-term census is going to be mandatory...?

[Wayne Smith]

Well, there's only one census of the population, and it is mandatory.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

There's one census; you're right. Where is the logic in that? If this is a better process.... Which would you prefer? Would you prefer to have them all voluntary or all non-voluntary?

[Wayne Smith]

In this case, that isn't ultimately my call.

[Brian Masse, NDP, Windsor West, ON]

I'm asking you as a scientist, a statistician.