Evidence of meeting #14 for Industry, Science and Technology in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was computing.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
Yes. The algorithm behind the encryption that you are using to log in to your bank is something that a quantum computer will be able to break easily. Therefore, the relationship between quantum computing and national security is obvious on that point.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
Is it correct that the same algorithms that I use for my bank are also used by the military?
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
Most of them are. It is possible that there are algorithms that remain safe against quantum computers, but these are more complex algorithms and they are used very little.
The military in Canada and the U.S., the west, and even China and Russia know that this is coming. There will be a change in cryptography, and it is really important that this is something that the Canadian government follows, so that people at CSE are in the know about what is happening.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
I believe I also heard you say that Canada will have, for lack of a better word, “perfected” quantum computing technology in the next 10 to 20 years.
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
I think I will leave it to my colleagues from the industry to really say this.
Maybe I should put it in a slightly different way. It would be rather surprising for us to have a quantum computer that is fault-tolerant within, roughly, the next 10 years. However, I'll leave the words to my colleagues, Drs. Yazdi and St-Jean and Mr. Janik, if they want to make some predictions. There's still a crystal ball prediction in all of this.
As we look at the progress around the world and in Canada, that would be the best guess I would make right now.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
Do you have a best guess as to how far away the Russians and North Koreans are from developing these technologies?
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
It's very hard to make a guess. I would be able to make comparisons only from an academic point of view.
It would be surprising if North Korea developed a quantum computer. They do not seem to have that type of expertise and technology. The Russians have a strong group around Moscow, but they were very late to the game, so I would fear the Chinese more than the Russians at present.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
You also mentioned that once you came back to Canada, you had to work with CSIS and CSEC to increase security measures around our quantum computing research. Can you expand a bit as to whether those security measures are adequate, in your opinion?
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
Any security measures can be improved, but the work they have been doing has been incredibly good at ensuring that what has been discovered in Canada remains here or is owned by Canadians. I thank them profusely for their help in pointing out weaknesses that were around.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
Okay. That's very good. I'd like to switch over to Dr. Yazdi next.
Dr. Yazdi, you successfully delivered a quantum computer to the Department of National Defence last year. Is that correct?
Chief Executive Director, Anyon Systems Inc.
The mission is complete and we're in the process of onboarding some of the researchers.
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
Would I be correct in assuming that cryptology research is the primary purpose of this computer?
Chief Executive Director, Anyon Systems Inc.
I cannot comment about it, because—
Conservative
Michael Kram Conservative Regina—Wascana, SK
I thought you might say that. I have to say, that's a very good answer.
What can the government do to improve the state of quantum computing at the Department of National Defence?
Chief Executive Director, Anyon Systems Inc.
For the Department of National Defence, of course, given its mission, I think quantum computing would be disruptive to its business. Professor Laflamme mentioned the potential challenge that a quantum computer might pose in terms of encryption, and I echo his assessment.
I think a machine that can break encryption is a few years away, still at least a decade away. That doesn't mean a quantum computer's usefulness is so far away. We could have smaller-scale machines doing some other stuff that could be relevant to the Department of National Defence, but decryption is probably a bit of a longer time horizon here.
That said, the question is what type of post-quantum encryption algorithms we're going to adopt, because some of the information being exchanged right now throughout the government network probably has a shelf life of more than 10 to 20 years. You want to essentially secure them right now, because they could be collected by an adversary and sit in their storage for decryption whenever the quantum computer comes around.
Therefore, the sooner we can adopt the right technology to improve our encryption infrastructure, the better it is for the security of our country. Of course, access to hardware could, for example, be used to test some of these algorithms.
These are the areas that I think could be relevant to the mission of the Department of National Defence.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Joël Lightbound
Thank you, Mr. Kram.
I'll turn now to Mr. Erskine-Smith for five minutes.
Liberal
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith Liberal Beaches—East York, ON
Thanks, Joël. My question is for all our witnesses. I'll start with Mr. Laflamme.
The government's consultation around a national quantum strategy is the “What We Heard” report that we have in our hands so far. As part of that, in relation to commercialization, the report states:
When addressing support for quantum companies, there was consensus that government should remain inclusive and not pick winners at this time, as quantum is a developing sector. At some point, Canada will need to make a strategic decision whether to support a few large players or projects, or many small ones.
I'm looking for comment on the strategic decision that Canada will have to make at some point, according to the “What We Heard” report.
I'll start with Mr. Laflamme, and then Mr. Janik.
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
Again, it's a hard question, because what you're really asking is to predict when we will know the technologies are ripe enough that we can made that decision.
I would hope that by the end of the period of this national strategy and its funding, which is seven years, we would know which horses are much ahead of the others.
Liberal
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith Liberal Beaches—East York, ON
I take from that answer, though, that the government has to make a decision before the seven years are up, because money is rolling. Therefore, at this point you're saying many small ones, and at the end of the seven years maybe a few large ones.
Professor of Physics, Canada Research Chair in Quantum Computing, University of Waterloo, As an Individual
Yes.
Liberal
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith Liberal Beaches—East York, ON
Mr. Janik, and then we'll go to Mr. St-Jean and Mr. Yazdi.
Head of Product, Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc.
Maybe one difficulty that's really present here is that there is not one type of approach to quantum computing. We have three leading ones in photonics, trapped ions and superconducting. Two of them are represented here today. Really, there are probably another five that are getting started in labs around the world right now.
I would say the signal I would look for is, instead of focusing on raw qubit numbers today.... Any company you ask here and any one around the world, ranges from 10 to 150-200 qubits, but really we're talking about a machine with millions of qubits. There's a really big scaling issue from the technological side, to go from 10 to 1,000 to a million.
I would say, when you see the first signs of true fault tolerance coming from any one of these companies, and Dr. Laflamme is able to sit here and say they have demonstrated quantum error correction and fault tolerance, that's really the time to start getting excited that there's somebody who can deliver on this really big promise.
The other piece there is modularity. When we talk about these systems today, we're talking about individual chips with tens to hundreds of qubits. When you're talking about a machine that has a million qubits, this is a data centre. To give you an idea of the manufacturing scale, the prediction is that the number of chips you will need for a million-qubit device is probably similar to all the number of chips that are produced today in a year for the telecommunications industry, from at least the photonic side. This is really a big, 25,000-square-foot data centre that we're talking about. This is not a small device, so scalability, modularity and demonstration of error correction are really the big things.
One final thing—
Liberal
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith Liberal Beaches—East York, ON
In the interest of time we'll have Mr. St-Jean and Mr. Yazdi, and then we'll come back to you, Mr. Janik, if I have a bit more time then.
Head of Product, Xanadu Quantum Technologies Inc.
I'd just like to say, your question is about funding many small opportunities. The question is, how many exactly?