Evidence of meeting #88 for Industry, Science and Technology in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was analysis.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:55 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I believe you.
5:55 p.m.
Liberal
Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON
Wouldn't those policies and regulations potentially impact the market conditions that would impact the overall outcome of your model?
5:55 p.m.
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Thank you for your question.
In the scenario we looked at, those sales targets for Canada were consistent with the government's announced EV mandate for 2030, and we didn't go beyond to 2035 for the light-duty vehicles.
That sort of policy change would have been reflected in what we're calling scenario three, which is what the government used in its calculation for the break-even, so they would be consistent with that policy.
5:55 p.m.
Liberal
Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON
If I may just clarify, had the Trillium Network report that was done in September 2022, which you based your work on, already predicted the ZEV sales targets and the U.S. government policy that would come afterwards? It couldn't have. I my view, that would be anachronistic.
5:55 p.m.
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
They didn't predict it, but the assumptions they used are consistent with that policy. Maybe they had advanced information or had some targets in mind, but the target of, I believe, 60% of light-duty vehicles in 2030 is what they have as their sales target for Canada.
5:55 p.m.
Liberal
Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON
Was your model based on those assumptions, or did you model it as not meeting those government targets?
5:55 p.m.
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
For our estimate, we included that in scenario three, so it would be consistent with meeting those targets in 2030.
5:55 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Joël Lightbound
Thank you very much. That brings the meeting to an end.
Many thanks to you, Mr. Giroux, for being so generous with your time this week, not once, but twice. Thank you to your team as well. I think today's discussion was very insightful for anyone looking to make up their mind on the probity of these major investments in the sector. We heard varied perspectives. You also did a good job defending your report. All of it was very informative.
The meeting is adjourned.