I think the embargo has damaged Cuba, and the general relationship with the United States has damaged Cuba. And I would emphasize the latter more. The general relationship with the United States has put Cuba on sort of a low-level conflict mode with the United States, so they have had to invest a lot in their military, starting in 1960. Perhaps the greatest damage that the United States has done to Cuba is just the general hostile atmospherics that required Cuba to build up its military and invest a lot of resources in that wasteful area.
With respect to the economic parts of the embargo, Cuba has problems producing. Cuba's supplies of everything are limited by the character of the economy. Cuba could export huge amounts of sugar, but the production of sugar in the economy has collapsed, from 8.5 million tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes this year. That's the socialist sector. Nickel has done well with Sherritt. That is a big money earner. I would say a main constraint on the Cuban economy has been its supply capability, more so than the economic character of the embargo with respect to trade.
Cuba can get anything it wants from other countries that it might have gotten in the United States, so in that sense it's not a big loss. On the other hand, if you look at tourism, the United States would be a major source of tourists to Cuba. It was already as of two years ago, before the Bush administration tightened the restrictions. If tourism were liberalized, Cuba would benefit enormously from a huge influx of American tourists, including retirement home tourists, medical tourists, sun and sand tourists, convention tourists, etc. The embargo has hurt Cuba a lot by preventing Americans from going to Cuba.
I would say that the impacts are very mixed. Cuba has suffered as a result of the embargo, but not as much as it makes out. I don't believe that the embargo was the source of all Cuban difficulties. I think a lot of them are homegrown. The trade relationship has not been the most damaging aspect of the embargo; it's been other areas.