Thank you very much.
I'm very pleased to be here to provide the committee with a brief overview of the human rights situation in Cuba and to offer a couple of recommendations for Canada's policy towards Cuba.
Cuba is ruled by an undemocratic government that represses nearly all forms of political dissent. The Castro regime, now in its 47th year in power, shows no willingness to consider even minor movements towards any sort of political or economic opening. Fidel Castro's deteriorating health and his proclamation of July 31, when he delegated power until his recovery to his brother Raoul Castro and six other officials, reminds us that the possibility for profound change is on the horizon in Cuba. There are plans currently under way inside the island to ensure a smooth communist succession following the end of Fidel Castro's rule.
Given recent developments, it's appropriate to speculate about how a successor regime that Raoul Castro seems likely to dominate would fare. It's difficult to estimate how long he might last in power after Fidel dies, however, as the variables that will suddenly come into play at that time will be so complex and numerous that any predictions can be tenuous at best.
While the experts predict the likelihood of some sort of economic opening, it's not hard to also imagine a continuation of grave violations of civil and political rights under this scenario as the revolutionary regime seeks to maintain its political monopoly amidst the likely stepped up activism by Cuba's determined domestic opposition in pursuit of its agenda towards a non-violent transition to democracy.
At present, Cuba's government continues to enforce political conformity using criminal prosecutions, long-term and short-term detentions, mob harassment, police warning, surveillance, house arrest, travel restrictions, and politically motivated dismissals from employment. The end result is that Cubans are systematically denied basic rights to free expression, association, assembly, privacy, movement, and due process of law. Cuba's legal and institutional structures are at the root of rights violations on the island, and Cuba's criminal code provides the legal basis for the repression of dissent. The mass media, both print and electronic, are under Communist Party control.
In a July 2005 report, the Cuban Commission of Human Rights and National Reconciliation, a respected local human rights group, reported the existence of 306 prisoners incarcerated for political reasons. Of the 75 political dissidents, independent journalists, and human rights advocates who were summarily tried in the harsh crackdown by the government that took place in April 2003, over 60 remain imprisoned, serving sentences that average nearly 20 years.
In addition to these profound political restrictions, Cubans also face significant economic restrictions. A determined campaign by Fidel Castro has been under way to roll back the timid economic reforms he felt obligated to allow in the early 1990s after the Soviet Union, the island's partner and patron, collapsed. In response to this crisis, Castro opened up the door to foreign investment and allowed Cubans to set up small private businesses. Cuba's highly restricted self-employment sector, however, has increasingly been squeezed out as the Castro government moves away from market-based mechanisms.
At their peak in the mid-1990s there were 240,000 licensed entrepreneurs running home-based restaurants and cafés, working as handymen and beauticians. Their number has now dropped to 140,000. This move away from market-based approaches is facilitated by a very lucrative economic alliance with Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's president, who provides cheap oil in exchange for Cuban expertise in areas such as health and security, and soft loans from China. Thanks to these relationships, earlier this year Mr. Castro formally declared the post-Soviet economic crisis over.
Despite Castro's pronouncements of the end of Cuba's economic crisis and the government's continued allocation of significant resources to Cuba's extensive system of social benefits, in various recent studies from inside the island sociologists and economists describe a Caribbean society with rising poverty and growing class and regional inequalities, inequitable access to public services and economic opportunities, and a re-stratification of a society along racial and gender lines.
They have described problems facing Cuba's social services, including a deteriorated system of health care and education, reduction in pension coverage and the real value of pensions, as well as a steady increase in the housing deficit due to the very low rate of housing construction and the destruction of part of the existing supply due to lack of maintenance.
The rate of poverty in Havana, defined as individuals lacking sufficient income to cover basic food requirements and essential services, was conservatively estimated to be 20% of the city's population during the 2001 to 2003 period.
The growth of poverty and inequality in Cuba contradicts the government's official discourse of equality and social solidarity and is contributing to a mounting questioning of the Cuban model as well as widespread demoralization inside the island. These factors, coupled with Fidel Castro's imminent death, open the door to a new period in Cuban history.
It is the view of the Canadian Foundation for the Americas that Canada should renew and retool its policy towards Cuba at this critical juncture in order to more actively and effectively impede the consolidation of a communist succession in Cuba and lay the groundwork for a best-case scenario for change on the island based on peaceful democratization led from within the island, economic prosperity, sustainable social development, and reconciliation among Cubans.
In doing so, Canada should explore how it could work more cooperatively and strategically with other key members of the international community, including the United States, to achieve these goals. While a sole reliance on heavy-handed pressures for change is likely to backfire, respectful yet firm suggestions for a democratic opening and respect for human rights accompanied by a promise of generous economic aid and technical assistance linked to a genuine political opening once Fidel Castro departs from the scene are likely to help. That is, the right balance of carrots and sticks should be applied in order to create the appropriate incentives for incremental movement towards positive political and economic change and genuine dialogue.
A key lever of influence will be to create the conditions so that political change is seen as an opportunity to improve living conditions for the majority.
Thank you.