I do not see such a Velvet Revolution happening soon. On the other hand, the track record of analysts predicting revolutions is very bad.
Mention was made earlier of the Berlin Wall. When Mr. Reagan stood before the Berlin Wall in June 1987 and said this wall must go, many people thought that was showing the early onset of Alzheimer's, yet within two and a half years, the wall was gone.
A U.S. government group looked at the track records of analysts predicting revolutions successfully and concluded that in the last 200 years, country experts had been inaccurate in every single case.