I've been thinking about the logic that Iran must be facing. I know this is completely hypothetical, but they've made all these claims about wanting to annihilate Jerusalem or Israel.
You stated earlier that if they had demonstrated that they had a nuclear weapon, there'd be increased sanctions. There'd be support for a pre-emptive strike if they simply demonstrated that they had the weapons.
As they think about their options, certainly having nuclear weapons gives them a power position, a place to negotiate. That makes sense, but if they were actually to follow through on their threats and launch one of these missiles, would they simply be trying to precipitate World War III? Do they see the end? What's the outcome?
It would seem to me that the retaliation on Iran would be immense. They'd be bringing destruction upon themselves.