No one can predict what the Iranian people will do. They have mastered the art of surprising the analysts. But a major push is underway to lure them to the polls, especially with the prospect that President Ahmadinejad may not be re-elected. Over the past decades, the government has also gone to great lengths to scare those who do not vote. That is why those who promote boycotting the elections are usually thrown in prison for committing a crime against national security.
For instance, every time you vote, the last page of your identification card is stamped. When you apply for a job, when you want a business licence, when you want to work for a government or paragovernment agency, you have to show every page of your ID card, including the last one. When you write a university exam, you have to show that page, but when you want to obtain your licence, you are not asked for it. The implication is that people will know if you do not vote.
I do not think that they can really do anything to 50 million Iranians, but there are a lot of people who vote out of fear, to avoid any problems, if you will. Will they leave? I think they are paying more attention to candidates and their campaigns than they were a month ago. So I think more people will vote than in 2005.