I think The Economist has caught the sentiments of the Iranian people very accurately. In the e-mails I have received in the last few days, for example, that sentiment is very much reflected. In particular, what people in Iran feel today is that the regime is making nice on the nuclear issue on a tactical basis to allow it to have a free hand to go at the democratic opposition because that's where they see the main threat.
Once they have cleaned house, brought this thing under control, and suppressed this movement, my sense is that they will then go back and renege on whatever nuclear agreements they have made. They haven't succeeded yet; the opposition has not given up yet, and every day there is something new happening, either at the university or in some city. But the Iranian people are truly worried that's what the regime is up to: playing nice on the nuclear issue in order to use that respite to go after the democratic opposition, arrest the rest of the leadership that hasn't been arrested, and show even more brutality than they have now.
My sense, however, is that the regime is facing a crisis unlike any it has had in its life, because not only is it facing the wrath of the Iranian people but, for the first time, it is also broken right in the middle in its own ranks. If you think about this regime, it really has had three main architects: Khomeini, Rafsanjani, and Khamenei. These are the three people who built this and kept the system going. Now, the two survivors, Khamanei and Rafsanjani, are standing opposed to one another and are fighting one another. This is a rift unlike anything this regime has ever faced.
There are indications that some Revolutionary Guard commanders are not in line with this policy of complete suppression. There is clear evidence that they are doing a major purge in the intelligence ministry. It is reported that of 20,000 employees, they are about to retire or buy out or force out 6,000 of them. These people do not accept the theory that the entire democratic movement was a concoction of the west, a concoction of American and Canadian universities.
I think the regime might want to go back to those dark days and complete the clampdown. I'm not sure, however, that they have the wherewithal to do it. The split within the regime is strong enough and deep enough that it might stop that.
What I fear most, to be honest with you--and I've written about this--is that the Revolutionary Guards will take over in a fashion that will resemble the Myanmar or Pakistan version of a military clampdown. I think that holding power is so important to the Revolutionary Guards that if they feel they are losing control, they might do something like Musharraf in Pakistan or the junta in Myanmar. They would take over and suspend all civil rights and the constitution.