I think the AU was looking in the right direction when they constituted the committee led by General Obasanjo. They have terms of reference to look into the causes of the current conflict. This goes way back, even before the Addis Ababa Agreement of 1972. After that, when the SPLM came into existence, within that period of 1983 to 2005 when the CPA was concluded, atrocities were committed.
First, the initiators of that guerrilla war were people like Gai Tut and Akwot Atem. These people died in the circumstances of John Garang, and whole villages were wiped out. When Riek Machar mutinied in Nasir, Nuer officers were killed, and then there was a retaliation in which the people of Bor, the Dinka Bor, were almost wiped out. Nothing was done. When Riek and Garang reconciled, there was no looking into what caused those atrocities, in order to move forward. When we concluded the CPA, there was nothing akin to what happened in South Africa when they constituted the Truth and Reconciliation Commission.
Everything was swept under the rug. In my own opinion, what happened on December 15, 2013 was not a coup but an attempt to eliminate Riek and his accomplices because of what had happened in the past. The killings that took place from door to door, in my own opinion, were retaliation for what they believed the Nuer did to the Dinkas in Bor.
If this commission of the AU, mandated through all the terms of reference to look into what caused this conflict and into past events, is helped to hide the truth, and if any quasi-peace is reached, the same problems will arise in the future.
There are ethnic tensions. There is dominance by a particular tribe in government. There is corruption that benefits a particular ethnic group. There is military domination by particular ethnic groups. Employment is based on nepotism. And there are so many other grievances: land grabbing, for example, moving cattle onto the land of people who are used to arable farming, atrocities being committed with impunity, police officers being killed. Up to now, nobody has been brought to book, and there are so many others. If these are not looked into deeply and solutions are not arrived at to prevent future problems, then I believe that whatever is going to be agreed on as peace will not work down the road.