Thank you for having me here today.
I'm going to speak in a little more general terms about some of the issues that have been raised by Professor Menkhaus.
Somalia is an extreme, extreme example of the problems faced by many, if not all African countries: multiple political traditions, regimes that are unable to manage the Procrustean task of extending authority to all corners of their territory, and the absence of infrastructure that can unite the country.
More worrying is the fact that the solutions to the challenges confronting Somalia are not readily apparent. It cannot be said that Somalia's problems are merely a lack of international attention or resources, since Somalia has been the focal point of international attention at various times and has been on the receiving end of billions of dollars in foreign assistance.
To be sure, as Professor Menkhaus and others have identified in their own work, there have been errors in strategy and tactics, and perhaps if things had been done differently earlier on, Somalia's current situation would be better.
The challenges confronting Somalia are structural, to my mind, and are not readily remedied by a peace process that is merely inclusive, better resourced, or more technocratically appropriate. While there are promising signs of governance at the local level, Somalis will sooner or later have to confront and reconcile the gains that are made there at the local level with the assumption that some sort of national state structure needs to be established.
I'm not sure that we can speak of human rights in the sense that we can think of it in other countries. During the 1980s, it was possible to speak in terms of a brutal government that, in its last years especially, did not hesitate to use extraordinary force against populations it regarded as hostile, especially in the north of the country. My colleague Matt Bryden described Somalia's Siad Barre government as a “toxic state”.
Somalia's problems, since Siad Barre's overthrow in 1991, however, are not that the government is oppressive and brutal, though in some circumstances that may be true; rather, it is profoundly weak, dependent on outsiders to survive, and having to contend with a political movement that regards it as foreign and a proxy for other regional or western interests.
Nevertheless, we can speak to several sources of human rights abuses in Somalia, and Professor Menkhaus has already noted some of these. Troops associated with the African Union Mission in Somalia, AMISOM, are accused of the things that he has already pointed out, yet AMISOM is also the reason why the current government in Mogadishu continues to exist.
Two al Shabaab and al Shabaab-related organizations have been accused of targeted killings, beheadings, and executions—again, things that Professor Menkhaus had mentioned—most notably, the October 14 truck bomb in Mogadishu, as well as other attacks. While many despise al Shabaab, some Somalis also benefit from its presence, seeing the territory that it controls as more secure, orderly, and predictable than government-controlled areas that are often run by greedy and corrupt soldiers.
In Somalia more generally, there are other human rights abuses that may already be familiar to you, dealing with gender issues and so on. Like many new or fragile governments in the region, the Somali government's ways have allowed it to be accused of various human rights abuses. However, perhaps the biggest problem is the impunity that allows government officials to do things without any sort of prosecution.
In spite of its troubles, Somalia is not necessarily anarchic, as that is sometimes understood. Within Somalia, an individual's identity is related to clan. In the absence of a state, clan is often said to serve as a sort of insurance. Even during some of Somalia's most turbulent years, Somalis have demonstrated a remarkable capacity to conduct business in their country.
Alongside the significance of clan come other problems that make the formation of an effective and democratic state difficult. Westerners tend to regard all states as the same, differing only in their levels or degrees of development. Things like conflict resolution, development, and human rights are often assumed to be technical problems that can be remedied with technical fixes. But the elements that are regarded as foundational to peace and human rights, which include democracy, inclusion, and legal sovereignty, can be problematic in countries such as Somalia that have such profoundly weak institutions. Let me just run through a couple of those things.
The first is building an inclusive government. Outside efforts to build an inclusive government have been fraught. A truly inclusive government is not only elusive, it may be illusive. Efforts to be inclusive have inevitably drawn accusations from clans that have been left out. Subsequent efforts to remedy that exclusion invite more accusations by others that they too have been excluded.
As has been the case in other places, Iraq and Syria most notably, efforts to be more democratic and inclusive have also generated resentment among those who regard themselves as the historic or natural rulers of the country. In the past, even sincere efforts to establish an inclusive government in Mogadishu have been interpreted by other clans as seeking to establish domination by rival clans. The emergence of al Shabaab is, in some respects, linked with this sense of disillusionment felt by those who believe that they have been disenfranchised. The view that the government has been captured by one clan at the expense of all others allows al Shabaab to maintain a base of support among the many clans that believe that they are threatened or disenfranchised by its existence.
On the other hand, efforts to be inclusive can also be exploited by belligerents. A well-founded peace process hosted in comfortable hotels may be a sensible path to peace, since peace processes and government are regarded as means to access scarce resources. However, it can be costly, insofar as it leads to an ever-expanding list of delegates who claim to be representative of various communities. The result, as Ken Menkhaus has pointed out, can be bloated, unwieldy, and often paralyzed government.
Democracy too, related to inclusion, will continue to be problematic in Somalia. The recent election of Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo has been welcomed in many quarters, though it is not clear that his presidency can make a difference, given how dependent it is on outside assistance and the fact that his election involved a profoundly corrupt and limited process.
In the abstract, Somalis welcome democratic government. It is also true, however, in a general sense, that ethnically diverse societies are not always disposed to pursue the common or national good over narrower class interests. There is compelling evidence that democracy can be developed in only established states, where governments are capable of exercising authority over all of their territory. Democracy, and especially the majoritarian democracy that the international community favours, demands a population that shares a common identify, not one that is divided along lines of ethnicity or clan. Neither of these characteristics obtain in Somalia.
A significant obstacle to the establishment of democratic government in Somalia is that voters make their choices not on the basis of changeable political preferences but on the basis of group or clan identify. That is to say, voting preferences are essentially fixed by clan. Since clan is the means to advance one's interests, to vote against or advocate against one's clan would be unthinkable for most Somalis. The effect of these fixed voting preferences, however, is to subvert the democratic process.
When voting preferences are fixed, minority groups will resist democratic rule because they fear being dominated by the majority. It becomes extremely difficult to protect the rights of minorities. For the west, this means that elections are relatively easy to make happen in a procedural sense, but it's difficult to have them mean anything more than the domination of one clan over another.
Why don't I stop there?