The main architects of the conflict are the Ethiopian government, led by Ahmed, and Eritrean government, who for some reason have their own agendas to attack the Tigray regional leaders. Abiy Ahmed has an ambition to be a one-man dictatorship, and Eritrea has some kind of grudge against the Tigrayan leadership, so both of them have what they call a common enemy whom they attack. In the meantime, the UAE is a good friend of Eritrea.
There is this regional alliance. There is the broader regional interest in which UAE is involved. Some even say America's previous Trump administration had an interest in this situation. The issue is very complicated to elaborate on here, but we should zoom in on the two architects of this war, Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea and Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia.
Both of them have their own interests in their respective countries. Abiy Ahmed wants to be a one-man dictatorship—no democracy, no elections, the same as his role model, the Eritrean dictator, who has been in power for the last 30 years with no elections, with nothing. Both of them are aligned against the Tigray leadership, who apparently held elections in September, while Abiy Ahmed refused to do federal elections.
In March 2020, when Abiy Ahmed postponed elections indefinitely, with COVID being used as an excuse.... Actually, Ethiopia had only very few cases of COVID back then, with no deaths at all—I think fewer than 10 cases—but the regime indefinitely postponed elections.
TPLF, the party that is the regional leader of Tigray, said, “No, we won't postpone elections. At least we'll do our own provincial election. The federal election is beyond our capacity, but the provincial elections we'll do.” Then Abiy Ahmed threatened, in March, 2020, “If you go ahead with the election, I will bombard you.” This is a statement he made on public TV: Our army is ready to attack you.