Thank you.
Members, Iran is at an inflection point. There are two contrasting realities, and I want to use this opportunity to shed light on both and on how the international community, not least leading democracies like Canada, can help shape the right outcome.
The victory of hardline Islamist cleric Ebrahim Raisi marks a key turning point for the clerical regime, something that's been overlooked by the west. For the ayatollah, Raisi's presidency is about advancing Iran to what he regards as the next stages of the Islamic revolution. The next stages of the Islamic revolution are about forcefully achieving Ayatollah Khamenei's Islamic society and consolidating his grip over the Middle East. To advance these stages, Raisi has been mandated to “purify” the regime. This means empowering the most radical and ideologically committed forces to Khamenei.
The danger that accompanies the new regime in Tehran lies not only in Raisi as an individual but also in the driving force behind him—namely, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. Against this backdrop, the IRGC has formed the foundation of the Raisi administration, with IRGC affiliates occupying key ministerial roles and many of the 874 government appointee positions. This includes both the interior and foreign ministers. The former, Ahmad Vahidi, is on an Interpol most wanted list for his direct role in the bombing of a Jewish cultural centre in Argentina in 1994. The latter, Hossein Amirabdollahian, is an IRGC Quds Force affiliate who had previously earned the title of Qassem Soleimani's representative.
Domestically, the IRGC is preparing to unleash a new wave of Islamization on the Iranian people to eradicate non-Islamic influences, including western and Persian aspects of Iranian society. Women and youth are primary targets.
As part of the plan to consolidate Khamenei’s grip over the Middle East, the IRGC is working towards two major objectives—one, the forceful departure of the U.S. to isolate Israel, and two, targeting the Abraham Accords. Under this agenda, all Arab states that have ties, or are thinking about normalizing ties, with Israel are targets.
Let's turn to the other side of the story, the other reality. While Khamenei is laying the foundation to forcefully achieve his ideal Islamic society, the gap between the regime and the people could not be further. Since the early 1990s, Iranian society has witnessed a gradual process of secularization and liberalization. Today this has reached unprecedented levels, with polling revealing that as many as 68% of Iranians want a secular state and only 32% identify as Shia Muslim, a clear rejection of the Shia Islamist regime.
Dissent has manifested itself on the streets. Tracking the trend of unrest in Iran, we can see that protests are growing in size and scale and are becoming more violent in nature. The 1999 unrest took place in three cities and left seven people killed. Ten years on, the 2009 protests were in 10 cities, and around 100 people were killed. Iran's latest protests in November 2019, however, saw protests in over 100 towns and cities. As many as 1,500 civilians were killed in just a few days. All the signs indicate that this protest trend in Iran will continue on an upward trajectory.
This new wave of unrest can be traced back to the winter of 2017, and is explicitly about outright changing the system. Crucially, this trend began when the U.S. was part of the JCPOA and 11 months before sanctions were reimposed. This itself shows that the protests are not just about Iran's economic situation. They're about the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. The slogans are the biggest indicator of this. Right now on the streets, unlike 2009 where calls for reform were still popular, today the Iranian people are chanting, “Mullahs must get lost”, “Down with the Islamic Republic”, and “Khamenei is a murderer, his regime is illegitimate”.
How can Canada help curb the IRGC's plan and advance the Iranian people's aspirations? The first key thing in terms of policy is that the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization is critical. The guard is not a conventional armed force. It started off as an Islamist militia, and has maintained that militia identity. Through the way it behaves, it is no different from other Islamist groups.
First, indoctrination is key in the IRGC. Just as groups like ISIS and al Qaeda spend resources radicalizing their fighters, the IRGC does the same. In fact, the same Quranic verses that ISIS and al Qaeda use to give religious legitimacy to wage jihad against Jews, Christians and Muslims who reject their ideology are the exact same Quranic verses the IRGC uses in its indoctrination material.
Today more than 50% of IRGC training is indoctrination. Just look at the modus operandi of the IRGC—terrorism, hostage-taking, hijackings and insurgency. Of course, the world cannot forget when the IRGC deliberately fired two rockets at a civilian passenger plane, flight PS752, killing all those on board, the majority of them Canadian citizens.
There is added urgency to designating the IRGC. Why? Because it's becoming more extreme and radical. There is a militaristic and apocalyptic cult of Mahdism that is on the rise in the guards. They regard Israel's existence as the biggest barrier to the return of the “hidden Imam”, and this is the clearest and most direct threat to the existence of the State of Israel.
What policy steps, then, can Canada take to advance the aspirations of the Iranian people? Like Putin's regime, the Islamic Republic is corrupt to its core. While the regime enforces a hardline Islamist order on the Iranian people and their sons and their daughters, the noble-born or “aghazadehs”, as we call them in Farsi, live lavish lifestyles in the west, including in Canada. These individuals must be targeted with sanctions.
Secondly, protests are already ongoing in Iran. For the past three weeks we have witnessed them. The next weeks and months will likely see a nationwide unrest on the scale of November 2019.
Agility will be key. Voicing support for the Iranian people, making sure Iranians have access to the Internet and targeting their oppressors through Magnitsky sanctions will be essential.
Finally, Canada can and should lead international efforts to target the IRGC and support the Iranian people.