Thank you, Mr. Ehsassi.
In terms of lessons to be learned, the first key thing is that the Islamic Republic is becoming more ideological. There is no doubt that it's becoming more ideological. Khamenei is empowering the IRGC because he regards the IRGC as the sotoon-e kheimeh-e enghlab, which means the main pillar of the Islamic Revolution.
Contrary to some assessments, this is not going to lead to the Revolutionary Guard undertaking a military coup against the regime. The clergy itself, the hardline clergy, is empowering the IRGC, and what we see today is an IRGC government, an IRGC deep state, and really their DNA is tied to the hardline clergy.
Moving forwards, without taking action against the IRGC, so if we look at the way Ayatollah Khamenei pursues foreign policy, Khamenei pursues a dual foreign policy for diplomacy and militancy. Previously the diplomatic wing was controlled by the Iranian government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the technocrats, and the militancy aspect was controlled by the IRGC.
Today we see that the IRGC has occupied the diplomatic wing as well. So far the west has only really attempted to engage with that diplomatic arm, leaving the IRGC's actions unchecked. That's essentially why we saw during the 2015 nuclear agreement that the IRGC effectively used the 2015 nuclear agreement as a bargaining chip over the west. In doing so, it was able to conduct and escalate in the Middle East, so its footprint during the JCPOA years expanded across the Middle East. We saw that the number of IRGC-manufactured militias—these are militias created by the Revolutionary Guard—increased as sanctions were eased, and domestically we saw that the IRGC was able to enrich its pockets even more. Each time the Islamic Republic stepped out of line, including by the way, in terrorist operations on European soil, assassinations on European soil, the west would essentially bite its tongue for fear that the Islamic Republic would walk away from the nuclear deal.
Where we are today is that the IRGC de facto controls the Iranian government and has control of the deep state. Unless we take action and counter it, this problem is only going to escalate. If we look at sanctions relief today, there's no doubt that rather than seeking to alleviate the pressure on the Iranian people, Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC are digging in their heels and bolstering their security forces.
If sanctions are eased on the Islamic Republic, much as in Putin's regime, that money won't end up in the pockets of ordinary Iranians. Rather, it will serve to bolster the very forces that suppress the Iranian people on the streets.