Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you, Mr. Menzies, for that question.
Again, if we do not get a deal, there is no status quo. Last year, the Americans spent $15 billion in trade-distorting support for the grains and oilseeds sector. We saw what that did to the feed industry in Canada; it was absolutely devastated. They can increase that spending by $4 billion next year and be within the rules of the WTO.
Our friends in Japan, which is an excellent premium market for our beef, can increase their tariffs from I think it's 37.5% to 50% overnight, without any notification. They can just say the tariffs are going to go up.
That reasoning echoes across all members of the WTO. They can increase tariffs and increase subsidies under the current regime that we've agreed to as a country under the Uruguay Round. If we do not get an agreement, things will get worse for Canadian agriculture--full stop.
I'm going to cheat, Mr. Chair, and try to answer the previous question.
My fear is that we will not get an agreement, that we will not tackle what the Americans, the Europeans, and the Asians are doing with subsidies and tariffs. The richest of the rich will continue to distort markets and continue to hurt producers in Canada.
And you're right. It will affect not only agriculture but every industry in Canada.
People will maybe put forth that bilaterals and regionals are the way to go, and we should always pursue those, but there is no other mechanism then to go after the trade-distorting support, other than the WTO. Bilaterals are notorious for leaving out agriculture, and that hurts us.
I had an opportunity to meet with the head of FTAs for Japan last week. We had a little side conversation. He said, “Well, Liam, you have to understand that agriculture is sensitive.” I said, “Well, if I were the Canadian negotiator, I'd just say cars are sensitive and you can't come into our market.” It's a two-way street.
You're right. It affects all industry.
Thanks, Mr. Chair.