Thank you. I have prepared a 10-minute speech in accordance with Mr. Dupuis' instructions, but I'll speak quickly.
Good afternoon, honourable members. I'm honoured to appear again before this committee.
The last time I appeared you asked me to talk about the North American Free Trade Agreement, and especially chapter 19, the dispute resolution scheme for trade remedies.
I advised at the time that chapter 19 was on life support because of the concerted efforts of the United States to erode its legitimacy while undermining its supporting institutions. I based my remarks on a paper prepared for the Canadian American Business Council. I deliberately did not talk about softwood lumber.
It is altogether appropriate to return here now on this same subject as a result of the April 27 agreement on softwood lumber, and although I did not receive any specific guidance as to what you might like me to address this time, I have been devoted to the free trade agreement, and then NAFTA and chapter 19, from their beginnings. I was among the very first to litigate chapter 19 cases on behalf of Canadian interests, have litigated many since, and I suspect I have written more extensively on this subject than almost anybody else.
It is distressing to me personally and professionally to witness what is now taking place with respect to chapter 19 as a result of the apparent agreement on softwood lumber, and in my capacity as a trade lawyer I think this topic might be the most useful for me to address.
It has been reported in the press that I authored a paper analyzing the basic terms, 48 hours after they were released, on behalf of the Free Trade Lumber Council, the Ontario Forest Industries Association, and the Ontario Lumber Manufacturers' Association. I understand the paper has been acquired by the Library of Parliament, which means all of you have access to it and some of you may have seen it. I will, therefore, be happy to discuss it with you.
It contains in summary the two key points about chapter 19 that I want to address today. The first regards what is happening to the results of the legal process from the last four years, and the second involves the rule of law being enunciated now for the future.
Had there been any ambiguity in the basic terms—and I do not believe there was any on this subject—there is no ambiguity in the subsequent drafts tendered by both Canada and the United States. The agreement does not recognize any Canadian legal victories from the last four years. They are erased in their entirety. In the current American version of the agreement they are replaced by language restating the U.S. positions that Canadian softwood lumber is subsidized, dumped, and threatening injury to a U.S. industry. The facts are, however, that NAFTA panels that have completed their processes, which according to NAFTA are supposed to be final and beyond the reach of appeals, have decided that Canadian softwood lumber is not subsidized and does not threaten any industry in the United States. Those rulings should mean the end of the orders and the return of all cash deposits, 100% with interest.
The current U.S. version of the deal announces that the United States found to the contrary, makes no mention of the litigation or judicial results, and requires the dismissal of all pending cases with prejudice. The Canadian version actually goes further, securing U.S. legal positions. It is one thing to settle, and to pay $1 billion and to accept permanent managed trade. It is another again to erase legal history, and, with that stroke, to delegitimize the NAFTA panels and procedures.
What is especially frustrating to some of the lawyers who have devoted energy and ingenuity to achieving these results for Canada and Canadian interests is that we are literally within weeks of final decisions from courts, and panels, and committees that would confirm those victories. It is not, in our view, mere coincidence that the United States is also in a hurry to complete this deal before these decisions come out, or that the United States has told the Court of International Trade it would rather not have a final decision in a key case, or that the new American text specifies, first, what products it will regulate, and, second, what legal cases Canada must give up. This development alone would be enough to dissuade any private interest in Canada from relying again on NAFTA to resolve a trade dispute with the United States, but there is a second, perhaps even more serious problem.
The deal could say that the countervailing duty and anti-dumping orders are revoked ab initio and that, according to law, all cash deposits are to be returned to importers of record with interest. That's what the deal should say, because as a legal matter that is what is to happen. But the United States is resorting to an alternative theory. According to the United States, when NAFTA panels conclude that original investigations improperly led to the imposition of duties, the money collected between the time the orders were imposed and the time of the final legal decision overturning the orders stays in the United States and is not returned.
This theory is prospective, meaning that NAFTA panels are to have only prospective effects, whereas courts have retrospective effects.
In the case of softwood lumber, this theory means that something in excess of $3 billion could be lost to Canadians simply because they were proceeding under chapter 19 instead of in U.S. court. The longer a case is stalled or delayed, as when the United States does not replace a recused panellist for months—which has happened more than once—or stalls appointing judges to an extraordinary challenge that the United States has requested, which it also did, the total that the United States keeps just keeps going up.
Now, there is no doubt of any kind what happens when trade disputes are resolved in U.S. courts. All the money comes back, with interest from the beginning. But under the U.S. theory, when Canada negotiated for chapter 19, it got something less than what Canadians would get in U.S. courts. In fact, because any party, including American petitioners, can remove an appeal from a U.S. court to a NAFTA panel, Canadians according to this theory have fewer rights than any trading partner on the planet except Mexicans.
It's according to this theory that the money is to be settled in the current dispute. The United States is proposing to use section 1617 of the trade law, whereby the United States gives back only some money to Canadians because, the United States says, it is "compromising its claim" and not taking all of the money to which it is entitled.
Of course, as the legal cases stand now, the United States is entitled to none of the money. It's Canada, not the United States that is compromising a claim. Resort to section 1617, instead of relying on sections 1673 and 1671, is the U.S. way of declaring again that it won and Canada lost, and that Canadians are receiving some money out of U.S. generosity, not because the law specifies that when the ITC issues a negative final determination, which it has done in our case, the Department of Commerce must “refund any cash deposit”.
The United States thus will confirm that chapter 19 means Canadians lose money regardless whether they win their legal case, unlike any other people outside NAFTA.
An alternative in the basic terms, whereby the deal would not take sides with respect to this issue, would solve nothing, because it would leave Canadian private parties uncertain what they would get when litigating under chapter 19. The U.S. theory that NAFTA panels have only prospective authority means the end of chapter 19. No sensible private party would ever turn to it again.
I realize some have said that it is only because of the NAFTA victories that this deal has been made possible. I don't see that reasoning, because I don't see in the deal anything conserved. When the next round comes, and I believe the agreement virtually guarantees it, Canadians will be starting over, only worse off than before. This is because they will have lost chapter 19 and will have to rely on U.S. courts entirely, the avoidance of which was why chapter 19 was written in the first place. And every other industry in Canada will know, as a result of this deal, that they can no longer rely on and would be best advised not to use chapter 19.
Worse, every industry in Canada will now have to know that chapter 19 is a handicap; that they could be forced to litigate there, guaranteed that even if they win they will lose. This House may need then to abolish chapter 19—the absolute dearest wish of the U.S. Coalition for Fair Lumber Imports and other American petitioners—just to save Canadians from its ill effects.
One last word. There is in the drafting also an attack on chapter 11, the state-investor dispute mechanism. It's in the Canadian, not the American draft. It would mean a profound erosion of protection for Canadian investments in the United States.
These institutional consequences of the deal will last longer than the deal itself. They will not make for a long-term durable peace and they will make for a much weaker Canada in the future. They will be a product not merely of the U.S. assault on chapter 19 that I described when I previously appeared before you. They will be the product this time of a collaboration between the two parties, the original custodians of the free trade agreement for North America.
Thank you. I would be pleased to answer questions.