In terms of trying to choose winners and losers for a particular trade agreement, this is a very difficult question to answer, because often what we do as negotiators is try to set what looks to be a very positive framework, sort of rules of the game for industries to work with. Obviously we try to make them as positive as possible for our Canadian companies.
But as my deputy minister said this morning in a different context, business does business; governments don't do business. We can set as much of a positive framework as we can, but it really is up to business to try to take advantage of what is there. They will put their assessment through variables that are distinct to their own particular sector and company.
In the course of my career, I have been involved with a number of negotiations where I have heard Canadian companies or Canadian sectors express strong concerns that if the government of the day were to liberalize or make a move in a particular sector, that would be the end of that particular industry. Those industries are very much alive and well, and in fact they're doing better now than ever before. Even industries that themselves thought a change of the policy framework would be problematic for them would now admit that, in retrospect, that did not prove to be the case. Again it gets back to the question, a very difficult question, of trying to identify exactly who might win and exactly who might lose, because companies are very adept at modifying their behaviour to take advantage of circumstances.
In tariff negotiations, often companies that will urge you to retain a tariff as high as possible for as long as possible, once they see the writing is on the wall and the tariff is coming down, are among the first to say, “Bring it down to zero because it's not going to help us any more and we might as well adjust. We've adjusted our business plan and our future accordingly.”
It's a bit of a mug's game to try to get into that sort of situation. On a general basis, looking at the impact of the economy more generally, given the dominance of the U.S. in our market—and I'm not an economist, so I'm wandering into some fields here that I'm not all that comfortable with—my understanding is that sometimes, given the size of these markets involved, the potential impact for the Canadian economy as a whole will be nil or point nil, nil, nil, whatever the exact number is. That's why I think it's more important for us to sit and talk to individual companies or individual sectors to find out what the potential is going to be for their particular needs, because any macro numbers, whether they're credible or not, are probably not going to be good enough in terms of giving you a real sense of what the impact for a particular industry or sector might be.
That's why we find it very important to go in and talk to industries, to consult as often as we can to make sure we're getting the facts from the people who are at the coal face in these sectors.