Evidence of meeting #11 for International Trade in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was canola.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Jan Dyer  Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association
John Curtis  Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual
Mike Darch  President, Consider Canada City Alliance
Howard Mann  Senior International Law Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development
Bruce Lazenby  Board Member, President and Chief Executive Officer, Invest Ottawa, Consider Canada City Alliance

8:45 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

We want to call the meeting to order.

We thank our witnesses for being here. Although one witness has been delayed a bit, we do have a witness with us.

We're continuing our study of the Canada-European Union free trade agreement.

We have with us, first of all, from the Canadian Canola Growers Association, Jan Dyer, director of government relations.

Jan, it's great to have you here.

We will have with us Mr. John Curtis, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, appearing as an individual. He has been delayed a bit.

We will start with your testimony, Jan, and hope that he gets here before we get into questions and answers. We look forward to your testimony.

8:45 a.m.

Jan Dyer Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association

Thank you, Mr. Chairman and committee members. I'm very happy to be here this morning. Thank you for inviting me here today to speak about the comprehensive economic and trade agreement with the EU.

The Canadian Canola Growers Association represents 43,000 canola growers across the country. It's governed by a board of farmer directors representing all provinces, from Ontario west to B.C. I'm really pleased to be able to speak to you on their behalf this morning.

Canola is a very important economic and agronomic contributor to the farms that span the country. Canola is a very large success story, increasing from marginal production back in the early eighties to the number one cash crop in the country last year and contributing about $19.3 billion to the Canadian economy. If you have our speaking notes, you'll see stated “over 16 million tonnes”. In fact, in StatsCan's latest production estimates that came out yesterday, we are close to 18 million tonnes of production this year. That surpasses by quite some tonnes our industry goal of 15 million tonnes by 2015. It is the highest-value agricultural commodity, contributing about $8.2 billion to farm cash receipts last year.

Canola farmers rely very heavily on international markets. We export more than 85% of our seed and canola products on an annual basis. Much of canola's current and future success is directly related to our ability to export and to our competitiveness in global markets.

CETA is a very significant opportunity for canola and canola growers. Improved access to this market is very impressive. The EU economy is worth about $17 trillion. It's about a sixth of global trade. It has a population of 500 million consumers with the financial means to buy our products. For Canadian canola, this agreement provides future market opportunities and a commitment to work through some of the market access barriers that canola is now facing. This is probably one of the most hopeful things that we have in this agreement.

Once this agreement is ratified, it will result in an immediate elimination of tariffs on canola oil, which could increase our exports of our oil to Europe by about $90 million a year, year after year. That's double what it is now. This access will create new demand for farmers’ canola seed and support Canada’s expanding crush industry.

In the longer term, CETA will provide a more formal avenue to discuss long-standing issues that farmers face with the EU non-tariff trade barriers, particularly their regulations regarding genetically modified canola. The importance of establishing transparent, science-based regulatory policy can't be overstated, and CETA represents an important opportunity to advance access for biotech products in a meaningful way.

In order to feed the world’s growing population and at the same time ensure that Canadian canola growers remain profitable in contributing to the Canadian economy, farmers must continue to adopt new and innovative technologies. This includes new biotech traits that allow for increased production and various agronomic benefits. In 2012, Canada had the fourth-largest area planted to biotech crops worldwide, with 97.5% of Canadian-grown canola planted with biotech varieties. Canola farmers quickly adopted the new technology, as it provides real economic benefits to their farms. Biotech canola has allowed for higher yields, more efficient weed control, and less reliance on crop inputs, such as pesticide use and fuel consumption. It has provided more opportunities for farmers to adopt no-till or minimum-tillage practices that have environmental benefits.

With respect to the approval of new canola traits, we are especially encouraged by the fact that Canada was able to use the CETA negotiations to get an agreement with the EU on a parallel letter committing the EU to ensuring efficient processing of canola applications and their expeditious movement through the EU approval process, which can be very long. Speeding up this process will allow growers to take advantage of innovation, which ultimately makes us more competitive.

To fully capitalize on this particular agreement and export it competitively, we also need to have some improvements in the Canadian regulatory process for exports of canola. We're pleased with recent changes to the Grain Commission, but we need to do more on the export side if we're to remain competitive and fully capture the benefits of this free trade agreement.

Thank you for the opportunity to speak to the committee today. I look forward to taking your questions a bit later.

8:50 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

Thank you very much. It is indeed an exciting product on the Prairies, there's no question of that.

Now I want to thank Mr. John Curtis for being here, a senior fellow from the C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto. I'm glad you could make it. We'll yield you the floor before we get into questions and answers.

8:50 a.m.

Dr. John Curtis Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual

Thank you, Mr. Chairman, mesdames et messieurs.

I'm delighted to be here. Mr. Chairman. You've made me sound as if I'm from Toronto, in fact, I'm from Vancouver in permanent exile in Ottawa. I can always get a crowd from Winnipeg west when I'm quite clear. I shouldn't say that in front of Mr. O'Connor, of course, as a local boy, but I still get mileage from about Winnipeg west. The other thing I might mention is that I'm a graduate of the federal public service, having served for 35 years in various departments of government. So I continue to follow trade and financial matters internationally, and teach it as well as an ongoing retirement project, if I could put it in those terms.

I'm delighted to have the opportunity to share some of my views with you on what at the moment is a political agreement announced on October 18 between the Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission, Monsieur Barroso. The multilateral negotiations will take months. I know this from my own experience with the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement and the NAFTA and the Uruguay Round. I was part of all those teams.

It'll take many months to complete the technical agreement, legal texts, and indeed, to solve some final, outstanding issues between ourselves and the European Union. So it's not a fully done deal except for the political aspect of it, which is very important. But it does mean that one has to be a little careful in assessing the agreement in detail, because we don't have the detail. What we do have—and I'm sure all members here will have seen the statement from the Prime Minister's Office, of course, the document released shortly thereafter, and also the knowledge that we've gained through the media.

One thing I would stress to members here that might reflect the fact that I'm from one of the provinces of Canada—I always have to remind my federal colleagues and did throughout my career, that Canada consists of both the federal government as well as 10 provinces and three territories. In fact, I think an important outcome of this agreement is the fact that within 24 hours, October 18-19, every provincial premier and all three of the territorial leaders supported the agreement in principle.

Some of them said, with good reason, that depending on the particular sectors or the particular interests of their jurisdiction, the province or the territory, they had some issues they were concerned about and would want to deal with either with the federal government or internally. But it does reflect a federal-provincial-territorial agreement, which I think is almost unprecedented in Canada in the trade file. I think it's really important and is to the current government's credit that they involved provincial and territorial officials throughout the process.

That meant an awful lot of revenue to Air Canada and the various other airlines serving both western and eastern Canada as the officials went back and forth to Brussels. The negotiators tell me it was almost unwieldy at times, but they were all there and that's an interesting, if I can call it that, Canadian experiment. We'll have to see if it's duplicated.

I might add that has not happened so far with the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations that are under way. Lower-level officials have been involved to some extent, but my observation in dealing with several provincial governments is that they don't know a great deal about this other major, almost what I'd call a mega-regional, agreement, as is CETA, under way now. That's something I think the government will want to consider as it proceeds.

I say that only as a bit of a detour, although I think it's important, partly because in the Trans-Pacific negotiations under way, Mr. Chair, we're dealing in a comprehensive way with the United States for the first time in 20 years. People tend to forget that. The United States is leading the Trans-Pacific, for better or for worse, but we're dealing with them across the board and this makes it very important. It has implications even for the European agreement.

As a general matter, a policy matter, and a practical matter, I would point out that whenever domestic regulations or international relations change—and trade agreements and investment agreements ultimately are changes in regulation—there are always gainers and losers. This is true of any change in regulation—telecoms, agriculture, international trade. This is important for governments, and for all of us involved in public policy from whatever aspect. We need to ensure that the gainers over time can compensate the losers. Broadly speaking, one can make the case that gainers, who are generally consumers, tend to gain overall over particular producer interests, which are at times negatively affected, sometimes seriously.

I think it's incumbent on all governments, and indeed all of us dealing in public policy, to accommodate the losers and recognize that people get hurt, as they do when there is technological change. Not many people drive a horse and buggy anymore. When the automobile came along, there were losers. As technology goes on, there are always losers in our society. But the thing is, those who gain should be in a position to compensate those who don't.

I'll make the further point that this is natural to trade. It's natural within your own family, within a community, within a region, a province, a country, and across borders. It is natural to trade. That doesn't mean it's unambiguously good, but it does mean that it's the natural state of things. That's always the premise that I start with. We have to balance interests. We have to encourage goods and services, people, and investment in technology to cross borders. This is a natural thing, and it leads to the benefit of everybody over time.

In that context, I could say that I think CETA on balance is good. No question: it is good for Canada. It's a new-generation trade agreement and will move both Canada and the European Union into closer cooperation in many areas of domestic and international regulation. The regulation will not necessarily be the same, but it will be more closely aligned. There will be fewer differences between us. From what I have read, it is breaking new ground in areas such as recognition of professional services. That's architecture, law, engineering, and many more. It will also mean more cooperation in temporary-entry provisions, movement of skilled labour, including CEOs. It's beginning to chip away at things that are going on in trade. It will affect, for example, how we regulate electronic commerce, which is such a major part of our economy in today's world. The younger generation would think it's unbelievable that trade agreements don't cover the Internet, that they don't cover trade in electronic commerce. But that's a fact. This agreement is beginning to eat away at that and to open up areas for regulation and harmonizing—or at least aligning regulations in those areas.

I'll summarize by saying the agreement is getting at some of the European Union tariffs that we've been trying for 50 years to get rid of—in fisheries, forestry, automotive products, and aluminum. I can remember negotiating aluminum through the Uruguay Round, the multilateral round, and the Europeans wouldn't budge on aluminum. These tariffs will be eliminated as CETA takes effect.

I've read, and perhaps you've heard in the committee, that most Canadian producers say there will be at least $1 billion of increase in pork and beef products over time, and it will open up government procurement on both sides, leading to some worries from municipalities and for locals. But again, it means that as taxpayers, as consumers, we'll benefit and so will European Union customers.

We are opening up some of our market for European specialty cheeses and we appear to have acceded, or be in the process of acceding, to European Union demand with respect to pharma patents—I gather this committee has already addressed that to some extent—and geographic indications, where the Europeans had quite a long list of basically trademark-like things.

Lastly, I'd say the investor-state provisions trouble me, not only in this agreement but in general. I'm not sure that previous Canadian governments were right in NAFTA proceeding in that way, but we've now brought this into the European agreement as well. Others will know more about it than I, but it makes me a little uneasy. I know why we got into it originally: we didn't trust the Mexicans when we got into NAFTA. But in fact there's been a huge bite back and it's not clear to me that it's in Canadian national interests to have these provisions, but we can discuss that, or perhaps you'll discuss it with others.

Finally, I would say that this agreement is really the first agreement that the EU has with a G-7 country, and that makes it unprecedented. It's going to help the Europeans—and I hope us as well—in their opening and continuing negotiations between Europe and the United States. And we've got a stake in both sides of the Atlantic. I think on balance I'd suggest to the committee that this is good for Canada.

Thank you, Chair.

9 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

Thank you very much.

We'll now move to questions and answers. We'll start with Mr. Davies.

The floor is yours, sir.

9 a.m.

NDP

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Thank you to both witnesses. Welcome to the trade committee.

Mr. Curtis, I want to start with you. I'm interested in the relationship between job creation and trade deals. There are claims in the case of CETA that it would create some 80,000 Canadian jobs. So far we haven't been able to find witnesses who could actually tell us how many jobs they're going to create or where and when those jobs will materialize. That could be because it's early days. We're in the world of big numbers, where numbers are thrown around.

So I'm curious; in your experience, do trade deals create jobs?

9:05 a.m.

Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual

Dr. John Curtis

The brief answer is no, not necessarily.

If trade deals—and I say this as a professional economist—increase productivity and competitiveness, that can lead to loss of jobs, if anything, at least in the short term. As an economy's productivity increases, it needs less labour, by which we mean jobs, for the short term. If indeed there is ultimately more trade, both imports and exports—because there are jobs related to imports as well, through distribution and other services—it could lead to more jobs. Over time, probably that is the case as an economy grows and as your trading partner's grows. But I could not make the case—and I wouldn't want you to think—that it's an automatic correlation between trade deals and jobs. It just defies the economics.

Then you look at numbers, and I say this having done a lot of these numbers. They're awfully tentative and they're the most indicative of the possibility of longer-term increases in employment over time.

9:05 a.m.

NDP

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

In terms of quality of jobs, assuming that CETA or other trade agreements do create jobs, do we have any assurance that we'll be creating good, value-added, high-paying jobs in this country as opposed to lower-paying jobs? Is there any necessary correlation between trade deals and quality of jobs created, if in fact they're created?

9:05 a.m.

Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual

Dr. John Curtis

If I may, Chair, that's where I think, as the economy changes and grows, particularly increasingly towards services and knowledge, those jobs tend to be higher paid and require higher skills over time.

This agreement, to some extent, is largely a services agreement. Probably, the case is that over time, probably on balance, on the services side, if all domestic regulations are attractive—because it's not only a trade deal; it's tax arrangements, it's infrastructure, it's labour laws, so you have the whole package—it might. On the manufacturing side it's less so, unless it's very high-end manufacturing, and Canada to some extent has been quite successful on the higher end of manufacturing, slowly, but it is occurring. For some of what I would call the traditional manufacturing—and even the resources, as people move out of agriculture—those jobs disappear over time.

I've given you a long-winded way to say, “No, not necessarily". Probably, if electronic commerce and if the services are strong and if research and development is strong enough in areas of high technology, those jobs will increase over time.

9:05 a.m.

NDP

Don Davies NDP Vancouver Kingsway, BC

Canada has run a sizeable trade deficit with Europe really for the last 13 years. It averages $19 billion a year. It's our second largest trade deficit in the world next to China. In addition to that, there's a qualitative aspect to the deficit.

I've looked at the top exports that we send to Europe, and vice versa. When I compare the top 10 exports to the EU, what Canada is sending to them is quite an overwhelming amount of barely processed or raw goods. Out of our top ten, we send them gold, diamonds, iron ore, uranium, petroleum products, wheat, coal, and solid fuels. The eight of the top ten that the EU sends to us are medications, motor vehicles, turbo jets and turbines, aerospace parts, wines, biological preparations, machinery parts, and medical instruments. It seems to me that we have not only a trade deficit, but there's a qualitative problem in terms of sending value-added products back and forth.

Is there anything in CETA that you view will address both the deficit and maybe the types of goods we're producing?

9:05 a.m.

Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual

Dr. John Curtis

If I may, I would make a couple of comments. You've described basically what the situation is if you look at Stats Canada data or Eurostat data. There's no question.

I'd make a couple of observations.

First, in many resources—agriculture and some of the things you've quoted—services are part of that package. They're what we call embedded services and goods. In fact, in today's world...that's why I mentioned electronic commerce. Increasingly, you can't separate the two. You use transportation to move oil, for example, sometimes with nasty consequences, as we all know. But it does take services—legal services, architectural services, engineering services. That's one point: it's not just black and white; you send a rock or a log, and that's it. There are all sorts of services related to it.

Secondly, in many cases the Canadian consumer...which is why I emphasize that, and I include myself as a Canadian consumer. I'm delighted that my ophthalmologist can use high-end German technology when looking for glaucoma or whatever else. To some extent we benefit. We're making inroads. In some of the aerospace we're doing rather well. If you travel in Brussels you sit on a Bombardier train.

On the global numbers, you're right. But over time as the economy changes and it moves towards a higher end, as you put it, a higher value-added, and as we begin to count the value-added involved, I think what you set out describes only a static situation and it is probably not useful as we look ahead, because services, technology, and goods are all wound up together. It's not quite as dire as you've mentioned.

If I may make a third point in response, Chair, in our current account, which you mentioned, our balance of payments in services is much better globally as well as with Europe than our overall trade numbers—commercial services, not all services. Tourism is bad and transportation is bad, and some services are very bad. But in terms of business services—insurance, finance, engineering, architecture—we're running a surplus in Canada. People don't recognize that.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

Thank you very much.

Mr. O'Toole, the floor is yours for seven minutes.

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Erin O'Toole Conservative Durham, ON

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I'd like to thank both the witnesses. We're getting into a few weeks of these hearings now. It's important to hear perspectives.

I have a couple of questions for Ms. Dyer to start off. What's exciting about CETA for the agricultural sector is the average agriculture tariffs to the EU are in the 13% to 14% range, on average. If you look at oils, including canola, tariffs rates are 3% to 10%.

Our exports of canola and canola products have been so profound in the last few years. There are new markets opening up all over, including in Asia. What is the industry doing to prepare over the next couple of years to take advantage of CETA? The 43,000 growers you talked about, obviously, have developed a very sophisticated export market and supply chain within Canada. Is there anything specific you're working on to prepare for the opportunities CETA provides?

9:10 a.m.

Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association

Jan Dyer

The opportunities in CETA are a little bit different from some of our other markets. The canola industry has a very detailed market access plan that we've been working on for some time. So we have goals in terms of access to some of the high-value food markets like China, Korea, Japan, and markets where we are currently working to expand trade. The market in the EU is a little bit different from that. We don't actually sell canola products for food in Europe. Europe has a very—

9:10 a.m.

Conservative

Erin O'Toole Conservative Durham, ON

Biofuels.

9:10 a.m.

Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association

Jan Dyer

Yes, it has a very large food growing area and they grow lots of rapeseed. Our markets there are for meal and for biodiesel. Canola is a much better feed stock for biodiesel than any of its other competitive products. You get about 90% greenhouse gas reductions from conventional diesel using canola oil. We think that's a very promising market in the EU and there's very high demand for that in the European Union. That's good for us.

Also, canola meal is very highly valued in dairy rations. It's highly productive. You get a litre per cow per day extra production if you feed canola meal to dairy cows. Those are the markets that we're concentrating on right now and we think there's lots of promise.

Those are the kinds of things that have been in the market access plan for some time. It's a little bit of a different strategy in Europe but there is a very large plan and the canola industry is very proactive, very aggressive, in terms of how we move products into those markets.

I will say that we really are going to be watching carefully on the Canada-EU dialogue on biotechnology, because the need for us to have trade approval in a timely manner in the markets that we're selling into is very important for us. We have technology ready to go here that's improved, that can improve our competitiveness. If we aren't able to get those products registered in other markets, we can't export them because they're just not accepted, not being approved.

9:15 a.m.

Conservative

Erin O'Toole Conservative Durham, ON

That's my next question so you're scooping me.

In fact, because you're looking for the EU just for meal and product for biodiesel markets, the non-tariff barriers that are going to be addressed and the regulatory councils that are being set as part of this agreement.... You alluded to the fact that to feed the world, productivity is needed, and biotechnology will be a critical piece of that. How do you see your industry using these councils to try to engage? You mentioned the science-based approach. I know this has been something that your industry and the North American industry, really agribusiness, has been working on with Europe. How do you see these sorts of discussions about non-tariff barriers helping your industry in the long term?

9:15 a.m.

Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association

Jan Dyer

The discussions themselves government to government have gotten us this far anyway, at least with the EU. It's very promising that they were willing to sign a parallel letter and agree to cooperation and to better dialogue and commit to speeding up their regulatory process. So we're really encouraged by that.

That's one of the key things that we actually need to push forward. I will say the Canadian government has been very supportive to the industry in terms of the way they partner with us. We have lots of joint agreements that we're working on. We have lots of issues in terms of market access on the technical barrier side that we just couldn't do without the Canadian negotiators. They have been excellent in terms of the cooperation that we've had consulting with the industry, taking the industry's position forward, pushing hard for changes where we need to in the EU and with other countries as well.

9:15 a.m.

Conservative

Erin O'Toole Conservative Durham, ON

Thank you.

I want to try to quickly get a question for Mr. Curtis.

I found your response on the jobs issue a curious one. Certainly I would say any analysis of a large deal like NAFTA would say that it was a huge net job gain. But in terms of diversifying our trade relationships, Canada in the last two generations really did not diversify because we could pretty much sell our goods and services, or 70% or more at times, to the United States.

If the United States stays in its slow-to-sluggish growth as it could, some economists are predicting 2% or less over the next several years, in terms of maintaining the jobs that are here now as a result of that north-south trade, can you speak about the importance of diversifying, particularly with a massive market like the EU but also with bilateral agreements with other countries to mitigate against a declining main trade partner?

9:15 a.m.

Senior Fellow, C.D. Howe Institute (Toronto) and the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (Geneva), As an Individual

Dr. John Curtis

If I may briefly address that, what I was saying was not that there would be no jobs. Over the long term there are jobs, but there is a short-term impact especially if it's very pro-productivity, pro-competitiveness and we won't see as much job growth in the very short term as often as we would hope. In the longer term, generally, if the economy becomes more productive and competitive then there is that job increase. We've found that with NAFTA, but it wasn't entirely because of the trade agreement. It's the investment that comes with the trade that led to the increase of jobs over time. So I was being rather careful with Mr. Davies to say that it isn't just a trade agreement in the short term, it really is that you have to look at the whole picture longer term. As the economy grows, as your trading partners grow, then of course, there is more economic activity including jobs. It's important to diversify.

I'm not of the group of economists, though, that thinks the U.S. economic story has ended. The amount of cash the private sector is sitting on, the innovativeness of that economy, the entrepreneurship of that economy all lead me to think that in fact it's going to be the growth of the United States over the next three or four years that's going to be the story in the world, not the growth of Europe nor the growth of Asia. Asia continues to grow—

9:20 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

I'll have to cut you off there because the time is gone.

Mr. Eyking, five minutes....

9:20 a.m.

Liberal

Mark Eyking Liberal Sydney—Victoria, NS

Thank you, Chair. Five minutes?

9:20 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Rob Merrifield

Four minutes and counting....

9:20 a.m.

Liberal

Mark Eyking Liberal Sydney—Victoria, NS

Well, I was going to say that it's great to be back on committee. I was here on my first committee in 2000 and we dealt with all the trade deals we have now with South America and Central America. So Europe is on our list here. I'm on the agriculture committee so we're dealing with the European agreement.

I just came back from an agriculture tour out west visiting many farmers. They are quite pleased with their crop of course—it's a bumper crop—but pretty ticked off with the rail system. Many of them say the reason is rail has potash and oil as their priority. Many also say it's because they're missing the single desk selling where they used to be able to coordinate many of the grains on the move. I don't want to get the Conservatives all wound up with that one, but that's what I heard from many farmers.

My first question to you is, what can this government do to make sure the railroad is doing its job to make sure your grains are getting in at the right time to Europe? Right now we hear that many ships are waiting off Vancouver to be loaded. They're not getting loaded on time. These grains are going to go to Europe so what can we do to make sure the rail is being used more efficiently and that agriculture products at least get the same priority as the other commodities?

9:20 a.m.

Director, Government Relations, Canadian Canola Growers Association

Jan Dyer

Well, I guess there are a few things. There have been some changes already with the Fair Rail Freight Service Act that was passed in July. That gives us reliance on service agreements. I mean, we've been watching it really closely. Our sense is that this year it's an issue of capacity. We are testing the capacity of the system to its maximum this year. What we've seen is that there's increased rail car demand but there's also increased rail service. But there is a backlog and the transportation system seems to be working its way through it. In the short term, it's a question of getting this huge crop to market and, when we've been paying attention over the last few months, we have seen much more car allocation to grains than we have last year. But we have a huge crop, with elevators at capacity and...spilling out of the storage facilities. It is really going to test the service agreement model this year, for sure. This is kind of your 100-year flood, I guess. What we need to do in the future, though.... There are a couple of commitments that the government—