Good morning. Thanks for the invitation to be here today.
My name is John Cody, as you know, and I reside across the pond in Dartmouth.
I joined the RCN in 1963 as a pilot, and I retired 32 years later as an air force colonel and a wing commander at Shearwater. I was in charge of a two-ocean fleet of Sea King helicopters. I have roughly 4,000 hours flying them.
I served in Washington for three years in charge of procurement of the Canadian-made helicopter hauldown and rapid securing device for the United States Navy. My job was to oversee the modification of Canada's beartrap system to meet USN specs for their LAMPS Mk III helicopter program, and then I sold it off to the USN for about $350 million in 1983.
At NDHQ I was the class desk officer for the Sea King fleet. After retirement in 1995 I worked for 10 years as the general manager for General Dynamics Canada's software support centre in Dartmouth in support of the maritime helicopter project.
During this time I served on the Aerospace and Defence Industries Association—who I understand are meeting down the road this morning—as executive vice-president for five years, and chair of their HR partnership, a subcommittee of ADN, and I retired from GDC at the end of September 2013. That's about seven weeks ago.
My perspective is interesting, to me anyway. This is a very large package. What I found amazing was that the officials who have worked on the agreement have achieved approval in principle from 13 different levels of government in Canada, the European Parliament, and 28 nations, and that is a remarkable feat, in my view, and I have worked on some big projects before.
It's nothing less than Canada and the EU promoting bilateral trade by eliminating tariffs and reducing non-technical barriers to support the flow of goods, services, investment, and labour, an important area.
The negotiations so far have and will continue to examine the following areas: trade in goods and services, investment, government procurement, regulatory cooperation, intellectual property, temporary entry of businesspersons, competition policy, labour, and for good measure, the environment.
It's thought the impact of the agreement in Canada will vary within and across various sectors and industries. This will depend on how firms adapt to the changing trade environment. I understand the mechanism proposed in the draft agreement calls for 99% elimination of non-agricultural tariffs upon signing, rising to 100%, more or less, over the next seven years.
A sectoral analysis indicates that industries that benefit from protective barriers today will suffer a negative hit as imports will now enter Canada at lower prices. A preliminary review suggests minimal impacts to most commodity exports, with a positive boost likely for processed goods.
In agriculture there is currently a 13.9% average tariff on Canadian goods entering the EU, which will lower to 0% over time. This should support increased access to European markets in the longer run, which as Mr. Risley pointed out, has to be good for Canada.
The proposed elimination of 95.5% of tariffs has to benefit the exporters of seafood.
In wine and spirits some Canadian product areas will receive special recognition for distinct products with special character or particular quality. I can think of Glen Breton scotch in Cape Breton, for instance. Foreign wines are therefore expected to be more competitive in Canada.
Government procurement is a large and extremely complex area. It's expected that Canada is likely to be a net beneficiary of this segment, as its exclusions apparently are much broader in scope than those proposed by the EU. The EU government procurement market is $2.7 trillion, all of which Canada will have access to under the terms of CETA. If someone wants to argue with the term “all of which”, I would say “most of which“.
Similar advantages are there for European firms to bid on Canadian contracts, with the exception of the following: defence contracts, R and D, aboriginal business, education, and social and health care services.
Investment thresholds requiring formal review will rise from $344 million today to $1.5 billion for EU investments in Canada. As an aside, investment thresholds will also rise for countries who already have free trade agreements with Canada, like the U.S. and Mexico.
The phasing out over seven years of a 6.1% tariff on autos from the EU is expected to result in lower prices in Canada for European cars. It's thought that the slow phase-out of tariffs on cars from the EU will allow Canadian auto manufacturers to adapt over time to the changes, as they are luxury models and hold a small share of the Canadian market. The preferential tariffs on cars shipped from Canada to the EU will be based on how much Canadian content they possess. Fifty per cent or more Canadian content will be duty free in the EU, which will lead to an increase of Canadian exports to Europe.
Temporary foreign workers are a big issue. Canada will protect health care, public education, and social services sectors. Preliminary documents suggest unimpeded access to Canada in all European sectors. Temporary entrance provisions for highly skilled workers in both Canada and the EU have been described as extensive. This will make it easier for temporary workers to work in both Canada and the EU. From my experience as chair of the HR partnership, I think it will be difficult for the aerospace and defence sectors to get trained workers. I'll welcome a couple of questions about that a little bit later.
The EU will allow for greater transparency in licensing. They'll also streamline the recognition of Canadian professional qualifications. Canada, meanwhile, will continue to struggle with the recognition of professional qualifications, as has been the case for years. I personally think that Canada has to get over itself.
Canadian banks with investments in the EU will benefit from enhanced investment protection, plus increased access to EU marketplace. The largest import, at 11.6% market share, into Canada from the EU is pharmaceuticals and medicine manufactured in Europe. CETA will ensure this remains for the first eight years of the agreement, and they've promised market exclusivity for a time for the Europeans.
From a Nova Scotia point of view, there should be very significant benefits for the Port of Halifax. The autoport is expected to grow. Halifax's two container terminals should see new business, possibly even a third terminal. The trade of goods could increase by $29 billion. Exports could increase from Canada by 23%, or $10 billion, and EU exports to Canada could increase by 36%, or $19 billion.
There are risks, however. The value of the Canadian dollar relative to the Euro has increased 19% since negotiations started. So some of the impacts that people are talking about today will change. There are many unknowns, and the impacts of the agreement are not well-understood. We've heard this time and again this morning.
But there are also opportunities. We could have an increase in GDP for both Canada and the EU, which translates to jobs. There will be increases in trade opportunities for both Canada and the EU. Market access for domestic firms will increase. EU government procurement will be made available to Canada, with a few exceptions. We will have increased access to innovations that can help Canadian firms become more productive. Canada will be more open to EU investment, and increased labour mobility will allow Canada to access talent, assuming that we have more foreign credential recognition and enter into mutual recognition agreements.
There are some challenges. Communications with the general public have been minimal during these the initial negotiations, which has caused suspicion and a lack of support among Canadians in general. I'm led to believe that numerous groups are opposed—CUPE, the Canadian Auto Workers Union, and the Council of Canadians.
In conclusion, the agreement is so comprehensive that it may scare some people when they first try to mull through it. The negotiators have done an excellent job to date in my view. As we found out with the Canada-U.S.A. Free Trade Agreement, it has been by and large welcomed by Canadian business. That is a successful model, and I have a very strongly held opinion that this agreement will be successful as well.
The maritime provinces, in particular, absolutely need to be on board with this initiative. And as new business in the U.S.A. grows more difficult by the day, even with the free trade agreement in place, Canada will absolutely require this new initiative in place to have trusted partners they can work with.
Thank you.