Thank you.
Good morning. DFC is pleased to participate in the pre-consultation of the Standing Committee on International Trade on the TPP.
My name is Caroline Emond. I'm the executive director of the Dairy Farmers of Canada. I'm joined today by my colleague Yves Leduc, who is the director of the policy and trade department. He's been following the trade negotiations for more than 20 years now, so he will definitely be able to give you all the background you need on this agreement and others.
DFC has never been opposed to the signing of any international trade agreements that preserve the integrity of supply management.
DFC is the voice of the Canadian dairy farmers, fostering a strong and united support of farmers at the grassroots level for a national system of supply management. We are the national lobby, policy, and marketing organization representing all dairy farmers living on Canada's 11,350 dairy farms. Our organization strives to create stable conditions for the Canadian dairy industry today and in the future. We work to maintain policies that foster the viability of Canadian dairy farmers and promote Canadian dairy products and their health benefits.
It is important to emphasize that the Canadian dairy sector makes a huge contribution to the Canadian economy. It adds $18.9 billion to the GDP; sustains 215,000 jobs, full-time equivalent; contributes $3.6 billion in tax revenues; and is one of the top two agricultural sectors in seven out of 10 provinces. Furthermore, unlike other jurisdictions where farmers' incomes are heavily subsidized, the Canadian dairy sector derives its income from the marketplace, a marketplace that will be affected by the opening of the market to European and TPP countries. The dairy sector is a positive contributor to the Canadian economy regardless of the state of the economy.
While we would have preferred that no additional access be conceded in the dairy sector, we recognize that the government fought hard against other countries' demands and have lessened the burden by announcing mitigation measures and a compensation package.
In addition to the CETA agreement that amputated our market of 17,700 tonnes of cheese, the TPP agreement includes concessions for cheese, with an additional 16,500 tonnes, as well as concessions for all dairy products. To this day, the dairy sector is extremely proud to state that it does not receive any direct payments from the Canadian government.
While we were pleased that Canada's compositional standards for cheese were preserved in the TPP agreement, we do have some concerns with respect to whether or not Canadian regulations and standards will be applied to imported goods. The growth hormone rBST, for example, is banned in Canada but remains in use in other countries. In addition, some of the labelling requirements mentioned in the Minister of Health's mandate letter for sugar, sodium, and trans-fat content are different from country to country. These have important implications for Canadian businesses, which could be placed at a competitive disadvantage if importers do not face the same regulations. It would also create confusion for Canadian consumers who might struggle with products not meeting higher Canadian standards.
Regarding the estimated 3.25% of access granted for milk and dairy products in the TPP agreement, using the government's assumptions, DFC was able to replicate the government calculations. However, when calculating using DFC's own assumptions, which differ slightly from those of the government on some products, our estimates came in at a slightly higher number. According to our conservative estimates, the outcome ranges between 3.37% and 3.97%, representing a loss of revenue ranging between $190 million and $250 million, depending on what product is really imported at the end.
In a similar manner to CETA, TRQ administration is very important in order to ensure these products are imported in a manner that is coherent with supply management and that helps preserve the stability of the Canadian marketplace for milk and dairy products. This is particularly true for butter, since the agreement will prevent the Canadian Dairy Commission from importing the TPP butter TRQ as it currently does for the WTO TRQ. Clarification is needed about who will be able to import as well as the role the CDC can play to ensure the impacts of the agreement are limited.
Unfortunately, the combined effects of CETA and TPP will seriously impact Canadian dairy farmers' bottom line year after year. DFC conservatively estimated that the combined impact arising from both CETA and TPP to be between 4.85% and 5.8% of the 2016 milk production forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
It represents between $282 million and $357 million in lost revenue. These are perpetual losses that cannot be substituted through exports. While we are working on a strategy to take advantage of some export opportunities, these remain limited as a result of the WTO panel, which essentially concluded that any export sales at below the domestic price constitutes an export subsidy.
DFC supports trade agreements as long as they have no negative impact on dairy farmers. Canadian dairy farmers should not bear the cost. The government chose to make concessions on dairy to secure the TPP trade agreement. The compensation to dairy farmers for lost revenue is a part of the compromise the Canadian government was willing to make. We are seeking a commitment from the Canadian government to invest into dairy and other supply management sectors the full $4.3 billion envelope at a minimum.
Contrary to the claim that trade agreements have helped to shape a better world market environment, it is difficult for us to conclude that. Now, 20 years after the WTO the world marketplace is not a friendlier place for farmers.
When DFC appeared before the Senate committee in November 2014 we told members that the world dairy market was essentially a dumping ground. Unfortunately, the situation remains disastrous. Looking at the International Farm Comparison Network world price indicators, prices have decreased from $56 per 100 kilograms of milk in February 2014 to $33 per 100 kilograms in November 2014 and to $25 in January 2016. At this price, none of the world milk producers can cover their cost of production.
Let's not forget that dairy is not a sector in which trade defines the industry. Only 9% of dairy production is traded on the world market. Dairy is mostly produced for domestic and local needs.
The CETA and TPP agreements open the door to products from dairy industries that are highly subsidized in both the U.S. and EU, putting Canadian dairy farmers at a disadvantage in our own market. Even products from New Zealand would currently enter the Canadian market at a dumping price, because 80% of the New Zealand dairy farmers cannot cover their costs of production with the current price they're getting; and Fonterra is helping them to offset some of this impact.
In 1966 Canada decided to support its dairy farmers by voting into law the Canadian Dairy Commission Act, whose mandate is to provide efficient producers of milk and cream with the opportunity of obtaining a fair return for their labour and investment. Since then, Canada has been fulfilling its promises to its farmers, and DFC hopes it will continue.
This is why the Dairy Farmers of Canada strongly believes supply management works. We wish to reiterate that DFC is not opposed to pursuing export opportunities. However, we are facing higher costs of production at the farm level as well as the processing chain in Canada. For example, Canadian processor margins are almost double what they are in the EU right now, suggesting that export opportunities are limited.
These export opportunities must return adequate profits for both the farmers and the processors. The promotion of export activities and export strategies can only succeed if they are jointly developed through a strong producer-processor partnership in collaboration with government. To be successful in world markets, the Canadian dairy industry must target specific niche markets as opposed to commodities. There is a real interest in exploring and developing beneficial and smart export activities, and we can assure you that we are engaged in dialogue with the processors and government stakeholders in finding ways to help sustain and grow the Canadian dairy sector.
In conclusion, DFC is looking forward to working with the government, which has reiterated its support for supply management, and working collaboratively to find solutions. We want to ensure farmers will continue to make an adequate income from the marketplace, while adequately compensating the farmers and processors for the negative impact occurring from the TPP and CETA.
Thank you.