The decisions to invest in projects that cost millions of dollars are based on basic market factors, some of which I listed earlier. There's the price signal and the cost curve in relation to the competition.
As long as the price of metal in the market hasn't fallen...The current price is between $1,600 and $1,700 per tonne. At $1,700 per tonne, about 10% of the global capacity is in the red, and at $1,600, that figure is 40%. No one will invest a single dime in projects, except in China, where they're giving out subsidies like candy to increase capacity and production.